Monday, December 23, 2024

5 insights into the state of play in Irish politics

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After a long day of counting, seats are beginning to be filled in councils around the country.

Here are five stories from the count centres and what they might tell us about the state of play in Irish politics.


1 – The Cabra contest

‘Just Mary’ Lou McDonald was on first name terms with almost everyone that she canvassed in her neighbourhood of Cabra earlier this week.

She spoke, among other things, about getting a hairdresser set up – for the old folk – in the local parish hall.

But it looks like Fine Gael is in her hair here, as competition in this Dublin city locality hots up.

Ray McAdam (R) is on course to top the poll in the north inner city

Fine Gael took no small pleasure in pointing to afternoon tallies showing that – with 18% of the vote – it is on course to outpoll Sinn Féin on 17% in the Cabra-Glasnevin Local Electoral Area, which is the Sinn Féin leader’s backyard.

Better still, according to some in Fine Gael, was that Ray McAdam was on course to be the first candidate from his party to top the poll in the north inner city.

A possible straw in the wind, where the Sinn Féin leader had hopes of bringing in a running mate and where Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe will want to secure a legacy candidate, if he is to depart politics for pastures new.


2 – Bertie’s revenge

Staying in Dublin Central (in fact staying in Cabra-Glasnevin) Fianna Fáil is likely to see a change in personnel.

John Stephens, who has had the support of Bertie Ahern on the campaign trail, is currently outperforming sitting Councillor Eimear McCormack, who is backed by Senator Mary Fitzpatrick.

Ms Fitzpatrick once claimed to have been “shafted” by Mr Ahern’s election machine, but was said to have had the last laugh when she removed all of Mr Ahern’s allies from the party’s Dublin Central organisation five years ago.

But in politics, memories are long.

And nowhere more so than in Dublin Central where, it seems, the Botanic Gardens gives plenty of cover for anyone wanting to lurk in the long grass.


3 – McGrath’s maths

In 2019, Seamus McGrath got the highest number of votes in the country at 4,247

Heading to the real capital where, in 2019, Fianna Fáil’s Seamus McGrath got the highest number of votes in the country at 4,247.

The brother of Minister for Finance Michael McGrath beat his own record this time around, with an excess of 5,000 votes in the Carrigaline electoral area of Cork County Council.

That’s more than two quotas.

As he prepares for the Budget, Minister McGrath might find these numbers just as interesting.

They would suggest that if – as some believe – he was to make a move to Brussels, it would be a good family calculation.

For those in Fianna Fáil who argued that if the minister was to take the EU Commissionership role, it would put at risk a safe seat for the party, there’s now one less thing to worry about.

On today’s numbers, Fianna Fáil’s strength in Cork South Central would be sure to hold.


4 – Eagle eyes on Skibbereen

Holly Cairns scraped in by one vote in the last local elections in 2019 (File image)

Holly Cairns became the leader of the Social Democrats last year and, at 33, is the youngest party leader.

But her political career got off to a nail biting start in the last local elections in 2019.

She was locked in a battle with Independent Finbarr Harrington for the final seat.

After eight counts, he was ahead by a single vote, but she called for a recount.

The ‘Battle of Bantry’ moved to County Hall where it took two more days to decide that the seat was hers.

Ms Cairns scraped in by one vote and within a year was elected a TD and now leads her party.

It seems like history could repeat itself in west Cork, where the Social Democrats hopeful Isobel Towe is neck-and-neck with Daniel Sexton of Independent Ireland, and Padraig O’Reilly of Fianna Fáil for the last seat in Skibbereen.

Will she be one of the key breakthrough candidates the party will be hoping for if it is to prime a young team for the general election that lies ahead?


5 – Right on the rise?

A big question ahead of these elections was how right-wing candidates on an anti-migrant platform would fare.

While no major surge has materialised, it is too early to say how many of this category will be elected.

Ones to watch are Glen Moore of the Irish Freedom Party who – full tallies suggest – has just under 10% of the vote in the Palmerstown-Fonthill LEA of south Dublin County Council.

It places him third in a LEA of five seats.

In Cork County, tallies suggest that Derek Blighe is performing around joint eighth in the Fermoy LEA where there are six council seats to play for.

Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is playing down any talk of success.

He told Newstalk earlier that “for every far-right warrior on Twitter that is going to get elected, there will be at least one Fine Gael migrant background candidate in Dublin elected,” he said.

“So, five fingers to the far right,” he added.

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