Putin said that Russia has no plans to attack any Nato country and, as such, too many Western leaders rest easy in the belief that Russia’s war is strictly confined to Ukraine because Nato’s Article 5 is “watertight.” But if Moscow is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, other countries – including Nato members – will be at far greater risk. Conversely, Western support for Ukraine demonstrates to Putin that he will pay an “even greater” price for an attack against Nato, and is preparing accordingly.
This fact is not lost on the countries closest to Russia. The Baltic nations, first of all, have warned that Russia could “pivot quickly” from Ukraine to invade their territory. Moldova, too, which hopes to break free of Russia’s influence and join the West, fears it would be next if Putin emerges victorious in Ukraine.
Crucially, Russia does not need to send tanks and jets to such places. A victorious, emboldened Russia, engorged on Ukraine and with spare capacity, could rely on hybrid warfare tools, utilising “little green men” both on the ground and in the information space to convince the West that a conflict in there is internal and, therefore, in the case of the Baltics, does not trigger Article 5. This is what German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius meant when warned that Russia could attack a Nato member state within “five to eight years”. It need not be as obvious as tanks rolling across a Nato border.