The deadly Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijani plane in Kazakhstan was likely caused by a Russian air defence system, military and aviation experts have said.
It comes after sources close to Azerbaijan’s investigation into the incident said fire from a Russian Pantsir-S air-defence system was believed to be behind the devastating crash, in which 38 people were killed and 29 injured.
But Moscow has downplayed the accusations, saying it is wrong to speculate on “hypotheses” before the outcome of a full investigation.
Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was scheduled to land in the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday after taking off from Baku – before it was diverted for reasons which have not yet been confirmed.
The plane exploded in a fireball after crashing into the ground just three kilometres (two miles) from Aktau, Kazakhstan, where it had hoped to land after flying east across the Caspian Sea. Mobile phone footage appears to show the aircraft’s steep descent before hitting the ground.
Subhonkul Rakhimov, a survivor of the crash who is now in hospital, told Reuters he “thought the plane was going to fall apart” and that it was acting “drunk” after a loud bang. Mr Rakhimov began reciting prayers and preparing for the end after the bang, he said.
Preliminary investigations in Azerbaijan have found Russian air defences were responsible for the crash, four sources told Reuters. The plane’s communications had been cut off by electronic warfare systems on its approach to Grozny, one of the sources said.
“No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” the sources added.
Azerbaijan Airlines said on Friday that preliminary investigations showed the plane had experienced “external and technical interference” prior to the crash.
Analysis of images of the crashed plane shows it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile (SAM), according to Mark Zee of the OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks. He said the likelihood of an SAM attack being behind the crash is “well into the 90-99% bracket”.
Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev drew similar conclusions from the images. “It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he told the Associated Press.
It is unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east instead of attempting to land in another Russian airport after the plane was hit, Mr Matveyev said.
“Perhaps some of the plane’s systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” he added, suggesting also that the crew may have faced restrictions on landing in Russia.
Russia’s aviation watchdog, Rosaviatsia, said the flight had rerouted from its original destination in Chechnya due to heavy fog and a local alert regarding Ukrainian drones. It claimed the captain of the plane was offered other airports at which to land, but chose Kazakhstan’s Aktau.
The watchdog says it has offered support to the Kazakh and Azerbeijani investigations into the crash, with Moscow saying it is important to wait for investigations to finish to work out what happened.
The incident has faced comparisons with the crash of the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 which was downed over Ukraine in 2014.
A former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency told AFP news agency that the crash was “reminiscent” of the MH17 incident, which also took place over a region of conflict between Russia and Ukraine
The Malaysian Airlines flight was travelling at cruising altitude over eastern Ukraine on a journey from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was shot down in July 2014. A pro-Russian militia had misidentified the plane as a Ukrainian military transport aircraft and
The separatists at first said their missiles were not advanced enough to hit a jet at that altitude and denied all involvement. This was disproved by later investigations which showed the plane was struck by their air defence system.
Despite agreement from multiple experts on the likelihood that the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was shot down, there is yet to be official confirmation.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a news conference on Wednesday that it is too soon to speculate on reasons behind the crash, but that weather was the reason the plane had changed from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.
Authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia have been cautious in discussing the possible causes of the crash.
But Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov said the plan was fired on while in the skies, and demanded an apology from Russia.
“Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov said according to Azerbaijani news agency Turan. He added that compensations to the victims should also be paid, otherwise “relations will be affected”.