Polls currently show the Germany’s conservative alliance, led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, to be far ahead in the race, with 31 percent support. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is second at 19 percent, and Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is third at 17 percent.
Merz has drawn his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) sharply to the right on issues like migration and energy. Should he and his conservatives win the election, it could mark Germany’s sharpest swerve to the right in decades, though that shift is likely be be somewhat moderated by the likely participation of at least one center-left party in the next coalition.
Steinmeier’s move to dissolve parliament was another step in a highly choreographed process leading to the February election, which German leaders agreed would take place shortly after the coalition collapse in November. That collapse led to a December confidence vote, which the chancellor, as expected, lost.
Germany’s constitution, which was designed to prevent the kind of political tumult that helped enable to rise of the Nazis during the Weimar Republic, contains a series of provisions intended to make the unraveling of a government as stable and orderly as possible. The German president was required to first approve Scholz’s request to dissolve parliament and call for the early election on the agreed date.
Now, with the last procedural step completed, a condensed and intensified election campaign is set to take place over the next weeks. Germany’s ailing economy, the war in Ukraine, and migration are likely to be key issues.
Already, the campaign has been unusually heated by the relatively staid standards of German politics.