CNN
—
He’s out there somewhere.
Nearly a week after a health care executive was fatally shot on a busy New York City street, authorities know what the suspect looks like but they don’t know who or where he is.
Through glimpses of his unmasked face, his movements through the country’s largest city and belongings police say he left behind, he seems almost familiar but remains a mystery as he continues to evade capture.
The public has now seen multiple pictures and videos of the man suspected of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson outside a Midtown Manhattan hotel on December 4. One video showed him as he pointed the weapon at Thompson’s back.
With mounting clues and likely hundreds of authorities searching for the whereabouts of a suspect believed to have left New York City on an interstate bus, how much longer can he avoid getting caught?
Former FBI profiler Mary Ellen O’Toole said determining his identity should come soon.
“I’m thinking we’re going to know who this is within a matter of a few more days, if that,” O’Toole told CNN.
“He’s completely outnumbered,” O’Toole stressed. “With that kind of manpower behind their efforts, they’re going to come up with the information that identifies him.”
The unidentified suspect made missteps before and after the attack that could lead authorities closer to finding him, experts say.
“The ability to stand up against that kind of an investigation, one person can’t do it, no matter how arrogant you are,” she said. “You’re bound to make mistakes.”
Some of the suspect’s prior actions, such as pulling his mask down on camera and leaving behind inscribed shell casings, a burner phone and a partial fingerprint on a water bottle, have only added to the clues left behind for authorities.
Police have also traced his movements prior to the shooting via a Greyhound bus that originated in Atlanta, bound for New York City.
NYPD officials said they believe the suspect left the city on an interstate bus, after video cameras showed him entering the George Washington Bus Terminal on 178th street but not leaving.
“The thing that works against the shooter is that law enforcement will get better, but the shooter can’t go back and undo what he’s already done,” O’Toole said.
The former FBI profiler says the shooter appeared to have perhaps only practiced such a killing before, rather than being an experienced assassin. Leaving shell casings or Monopoly money behind for authorities would not typically align with the actions of a killer who wanted “to blend back into oblivion,” O’Toole said.
Peter Young, a former prisoner and FBI fugitive who was charged with terrorism crimes related to releases of animals from fur farms and evaded capture for more than seven years, told CNN minimizing the number of actions a fugitive takes before and after a crime is crucial to avoid getting caught.
“It sounds like this person did not adhere to that,” Young said. “If he was stopping at Starbucks, that sounds like an unnecessary risk.”
After several days of having evaded capture from the FBI, New York Police Department and other agencies, the psychological pressure of being on the run and the focus of a widespread search could lead to future errors, according to O’Toole.
“It would be absolutely overwhelming and there’s nothing that he can do about it, and this is where he will make mistakes,” she said. “In the shoes of the shooter right now, he is dealing with emotions and consequences that I don’t think he anticipated at all.”
It’s possible the suspect could lose the critical thinking skills needed to strategically evade capture under the mounting pressure, the expert said.
“His options are getting fewer and fewer and fewer, and then on top of that, his ability to make good decisions is deteriorating,” O’Toole said.
“(With) the reality that he can never go back to a normal life the way it was before last week, all of those can result in very poor decision-making,” she added.
O’Toole says the more investigators are able to zero in on the suspect and his identity, they will be able to examine details about his life that could be crucial to the case.
“They’ll be looking for his patterns of behavior,” O’Toole said.
“You start looking at, ‘Where does he work? Where does he go after work? Does he work out in the gym? Does he walk his family dog?’” she said.
“It’s really difficult for us to break every pattern of behavior that we depend on in our lives, so eventually you default to going into Starbucks to get your coffee, or you default to getting up at six o’clock in the morning and going for a run,” she added.
The suspect was spotted ordering a bottle of water and two energy bars from Starbucks the morning before the shooting, according to images authorities released.
Early Sunday, the FBI released new photos of the hooded suspect wearing dark clothing while sitting in the back of a taxi, his face partially covered in a blue mask as his eyes appeared to stare directly into the cab’s camera.
Similar photos showed him outside the taxi, appearing to walk down the street.
Authorities also hope someone who knows the suspect will come forward. The FBI is offering up to $50,000 of reward money for information leading to his arrest and conviction. The NYPD has added another $10,000.
The gun police believe was used in the shooting remains missing.
After inspecting a backpack police sources said may have belonged to the shooter, authorities determined no gun was inside. That prompted a search with divers in Central Park over the weekend, which came up empty.
The backpack contained a Tommy Hilfiger jacket and Monopoly money, a law enforcement source told CNN.
Police have also found a burner phone they believe the suspect used, found DNA and lifted a partial fingerprint from a water bottle, and recovered 9 mm shell casings from the scene of the shooting with the words “delay,” “deny” and “depose” written on them, according to Joseph Kenny, the chief detective of the NYPD.
Police are looking into whether the words, similar in phrasing to a common description of insurance company tactics – “Delay, deny, defend” – may point to a motive. A book critiquing the insurance industry was published with the title “Delay Deny Defend” in 2010.
Surveillance images released by authorities show the suspect riding an electric bike toward Central Park. The bike has not been found.