Friday briefing: France’s government has collapsed – now the chaos begins

Good morning. The French prime minister, Michel Barnier, resigned yesterday, after far-right and leftist lawmakers joined forces to topple his government on Wednesday, only three months after it had taken office. Barnier and his government will stay on in a caretaker capacity, taking care of day-to-day business until the appointment of a new government, the Élysée said in a statement.

The end of Barnier’s government – the first to fall from a no-confidence vote in France in more than 60 years – has plunged the country into political crisis and turned Barnier, a veteran politician who was formerly the European Union’s Brexit negotiator, into the shortest serving prime minister in modern French history.

The country’s president, Emmanuel Macron, addressed the nation last night, saying: “You have given me a democratic mandate of five years and I’ll carry it out fully until its term”. Today’s newsletter is about what happened – and what may come next. First, here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Labour | Keir Starmer accused Whitehall of becoming comfortable with failure as he challenged civil servants to hit a series of new policy targets. In a speech widely seen as an attempted re-launch, Starmer set out six “milestone” goals including building 1.5m homes in England and putting the UK “on track” for 95% clean power by 2030.

2. Health | The NHS is facing a “quad-demic” of health emergencies as it heads into winter, with hospitals “busier than ever” for this time of year, the health service’s most senior doctor has said. Cases of flu, Covid, norovirus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are all on the rise.

3. US politics | The US House of Representatives has voted 206-198 to block the release of a long-awaited report on allegations of sexual misconduct against former member Matt Gaetz. Gaetz, who recently withdrew from consideration to be Donald Trump’s attorney general, is said to be considering a bid to be governor of Florida.

4. South Korea | The South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol, could put citizens in “great danger” if he is not suspended, the head of the ruling party said on Friday, increasing the likelihood that parliament will vote to impeach Yoon over Tuesday’s failed martial law declaration.

5. US news | The New York police department has issued a fresh image showing the face of a man suspected of shooting and killing the UnitedHealthcare CEO, Brian Thompson. The manhunt continued and police appeared to be closing in on the fugitive as key new clues surfaced.

In depth: ‘We had a choice to make, and our choice is to protect the French’

The no-confidence motion, brought by leftist lawmakers in the national assembly, came amid a standoff over a draft austerity budget that had sought to save €60bn through spending cuts and tax rises in the hopes of reducing the country’s deficit. Earlier this week, Barnier (above) opted to use a constitutional measure known as article 49.3 to pass a social security financial bill. The constitutional measure allows a government to pass legislation without parliament’s approval but also gives MPs the chance to challenge that decision by presenting a no-confidence motion.

With the crucial support of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, a majority of 331 MPs in the 577-member chamber voted to oust the government. After the vote, Le Pen told TF1 television that “we had a choice to make, and our choice is to protect the French” from a “toxic” budget. It was the country’s first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

How did it come to this?

The political turmoil stems from Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament in June and hold early elections after his centrist forces suffered a humiliating defeat in the European parliament elections. While the NFP, a coalition of left-leaning parties ranging from the mainstream Socialist party (PS) to the radical-left Unbowed France (LFI) headed by the political firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, won the largest number of seats, the results divided parliament into three roughly equal blocs – left, centre and right/far right – none of which had a majority.

As the largest parliamentary force, the leftwing NFP said it should name the new head of government. Macron rejected this, instead appointing Barnier and giving rise to a tenuous alliance of centrist and centre-right MPs. By echoing the far-right’s rhetoric on hot-button issues such as crime, security and immigration, and compromising on measures such as easing the cost of living, Barnier had hoped to curry the support of the far right for as long as possible. On Wednesday, that support ran out.

In the wake of the no-confidence vote, Macron has faced calls to resign. As his term runs until 2027 he cannot be pushed out, but the months-long political turmoil has left him a diminished figure. “His failure” was leftwing daily Liberation’s front-page headline on Wednesday, with a picture of Macron.

What does this mean for France?

The government’s fall has plunged France into a period of deep political uncertainty. The prospect that the country will end the year without a stable government or a 2025 budget is already unnerving investors. Earlier this week, France’s borrowing costs briefly exceeded those of Greece, generally considered a far more risky investment.

France’s constitution allows for a government – possibly even a caretaker government – to pass an emergency law that could prolong the previous year’s budget so that public sector workers, for example, continue to be paid. But the upheaval is also likely to further weaken a European Union that is already reeling from the implosion of Germany’s coalition government and scrambling to present a united front before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

And the government’s fall comes as France is bracing for public-sector strikes that could lead to schools, air and rail traffic being shut down. Yesterday, unions called for civil servants, including teachers and air-traffic controllers, to strike over separate cost-cutting measures.

The turmoil couldn’t come at a worse time for Macron, who is gearing up to host dignitaries from around the world for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral tomorrow after the devastating fire in 2019. Those expected to attend the opening include Trump, in his first foreign trip since he was re-elected.

What happens next?

Macron now has the unenviable task of picking a viable successor capable of navigating the polarised currents of the country’s fragmented parliament, which will remain unchanged as no new legislative elections can be held until at least July. He could also decide to appoint a technocratic government to oversee France’s administration for a further six months. He ruled out resigning last night.

As the head of the caretaker government, Barnier will handle day-to-day business, including proposing emergency legislation that would roll over spending limits and tax provisions from 2024. That would avert a government shutdown, but the €60bn (£50bn) of savings through spending cuts and tax rises planned by the Barnier government – and welcomed by the EU and investors – would no longer happen.

Another option would be for Macron to give in to the budget demands of the RN and name a prime minister backed by the far-right party. But that would imply abandoning efforts to cut France’s budget deficit. Barnier’s caretaker government could also invoke constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget by executive order if MPs have not approved it by 20 December, but legal experts say this is uncertain territory and would be open to challenge.

Instead, Macron is expected to appoint the new prime minister swiftly, several sources told AFP. Macron said last night that he would do so “in the coming days” and that he would instruct them to form a government “in the general interest, representing all political forces who can take part” and undertake not to bring the government down.

Candidates for the post are few, but the loyalist defence minister Sébastien Lecornu and Macron’s centrist ally François Bayrou are possible contenders. On the left, Macron could turn to the former Socialist PM and interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve, whose name was floated as a potential prime minister prior to Barnier’s appointment. But the risk remains that MPs will topple one pick after another.

Guardian staff and agencies

Sport

Cricket | An imperious century from Harry Brook (above) led England to 280 before New Zealand lost five wickets for 86 runs to leave the tourists firmly in control of the second Test. Brook’s counter-attacking stand with Ollie Pope (66) saved a precarious situation after England had been reduced to 43-4.

Premier League | Two goals for Alex Iwobi helped Fulham to a 3-1 win over Brighton at Craven Cottage. Elsewhere, Bournemouth beat Spurs 1-0 thanks to teenage defender Dean Huijsen’s early header.

Formula One | George Russell has claimed his Formula One rival Max Verstappen threatened him with violence during the escalating tensions between the drivers at the Qatar Grand Prix. The Mercedes driver said Verstappen told him he would deliberately crash into him and “put me on my fucking head in the wall”.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

Film
All We Imagine As Light | ★★★★★
Mumbai is more than a city. It’s an ever-expanding universe. Night shots of the thronged streets in this exquisite, Cannes prize-winning drama by Mumbai-born documentary director turned fiction film-maker Payal Kapadia show the skyline as a shimmering constellation of lights. And behind each flickering window, inside every snaking commuter train, there is a whole world with its own myriad of stories. Nurse Prabha (Kani Kusruti, above left) is a veteran at the busy urban hospital; her younger colleague Anu (Divya Prabha, above right), newly arrived from the south of India, is caught up in the first thrill of romance with her Muslim boyfriend. And Pavarty (Chhaya Kadam), a cook in the hospital kitchen, is facing eviction from a home that is due to be demolished to sate the voracious appetite of gentrification. These are ordinary lives, with small sadnesses, twinging regrets and sparks of joy. But through Kapadia’s empathetic lens we realise that these women, like the city that never entirely feels like home for any of them, contain multitudes. Wendy Ide

TV
Game of Throws: Inside Darts | ★★★★☆
Is darts the best sport in the world? If it isn’t, it’s certainly a heavyweight contender and it’s bang in form, with the coming of the current golden age confirmed during the extraordinary 2024 PDC World Championship. Game of Throws, a three-part reminiscence about those three dramatic weeks in London a year ago, successfully bottles the moment. Darts can be a dark place, although in a literal sense it’s a brightly lit place full of people in nun costumes carrying trays with 22 pints of beer on them. But the mental battles are what make it compelling. To throw without wavering demands total self-belief. Maintaining that is supremely hard, which creates a singular, lurching suspense, especially when the sport is blessed with a talented generation of players. With its juicy behind-the-scenes insights, Game of Throws is there for every small moment. Lucy Mangan

Music
Father John Misty: Mahashmashana | ★★★★☆
There’s always been a grandiosity to Father John Misty; an eye for life’s Big Topics – religion, the self, an existential questioning of what any of it really means anyway – that’s evolved in tandem with the growth of Josh Tillman, the man behind it all. Mahashmashana – a reference to the Sanskrit word for “great cremation ground” – feels like a tying together of much that has come before. There’s Hollywood theatricality on the title track’s opening sweep of strings, and widescreen catharsis on Screamland’s apocalyptic climax, while the swaggering She Cleans Up still finds time to let loose. Lyrically, Tillman remains a superlative chronicler of life’s perverseness. Yet where before his words teemed with fiery judgment, now it seems like Tillman is simply noticing the embers and watching how they burn. Lisa Wright

Book
Over the Rainbow by Alex James
In December 2022, the four members of Blur reconvened to discuss the possibility of a reunion. This surprised bassist Alex James, as he admits in his new memoir, because their last meeting, eight years previously, “was a car crash that had haunted me daily ever since”. While the reader is curious to know whether it was his driving that caused this metaphorical pile-up, James opts not to elucidate. Diplomacy is key. Over the Rainbow is very much not a typical music memoir, but then James has never been a typical band bore. He always was a Britpop Jeffrey Bernard, a flamboyant rake who could drink himself blind and then write about it amusingly. Since the band’s heyday, he’s become a married father of five, and has grown “enormously fat” (reason: cheese). He’s also the owner of a working farm in the Cotswolds. It is entirely possible that the 56-year-old James, just like any other sentient human, experiences his fair share of dark nights of the soul. But on the page, he does not. Instead, his life reads like a consequence-free adventure ride. Nick Duerden

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