- FTSE 100 falls 6 points
- Bitcoin tops $100,000 and moves still higher
- Vodafone’s UK merger with Three approved, subject to commitments
- Frasers results disappoint, guidance cut due to ‘tough conditions’
1.54pm: ScotMort downgraded
Shares in retail investor favourite Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC (LSE:SMT) are down 1.3% after broker Stifel downgraded its rating as they see investment valuations becoming too stretched.
A year ago, analyst Iain Scouller and his team suggested that the tide may be turning for the investment company and other trusts managed by Baillie Gifford, with their growth-focused investment style coming back into favour.
This prediction turned out not to be wrong, with many of these portfolios showing strong NAV performance over the past year or so, with many of the trusts seeing their discounts narrow.
But now he says: “We are taking a contrarian view and following this strong re-rating we are more cautious on the prospects for the investment style as we head into 2025, and wonder if many of these growth company stories are now starting to be priced for a perfect environment”…read more
1.15pm: Opec statement
Brent crude prices are little moved at $72.26 a barrel as Opec+ agreed to extend its production go-slow for another year.
Looking to support oil prices, the group of oil-producing nations said output would be held at 39.7 million barrels per day, compared with a previously agreed level of 40.5mn b/d.
In a statement, the Opec Secretariat said eight members of the group ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman ꟷ were due to begin gradually unwinding these voluntary cuts over 2025, but have now agreed today to delay this until at least Aprill and return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year.
The delay is designed “to support market stability”, the Opec Secretariat said, adding that the unwinding of the cuts “can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions”.
Today’s changes will effectively reduce the amount of additional oil being introduced to the market every month, compared to the previous plan, Argus Media reported.
12.27pm: Flat start for Wall Street expected
US stocks are set for a flat start on Thursday, with futures for the main three indices all very slightly in the red.
Pre-market movers include MicroStrategy Inc, up 7.4% on the back of its massive bitcoin investments, with Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) and Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) not far behind.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 is a laggard, held back by a 1.3% fall for Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) and 0.8% for BP PLC (LSE:BP.) as the Opec+ meeting was held.
Ahead of the meeting, insiders told Reuters that the oil producers cartel is likely to delay its plan to raise oil output.
In Europe, the DAX index is up 0.35% and the CAC 40 0.2%.
12pm: Petrol car numbers have passed peak
Numbers of UK petrol cars have peaked in a turning point for the country in its shift to electric vehicles, a new analysis has found.
An estimated 18.7 million petrol-powered cars were driven on UK roads this year, analysis by Auto Trader found, with this set to slump to 11.1 million come 2034.
EV numbers were seen surging from 2024’s 1.3 million 13.7 million in the meantime as the government’s proposed ban on fossil fuel-powered car sales by 2030 approached.
“Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK,” Auto Trader spokesperson Ian Plummer said.
11.48am: Rising insurance losses from natural disasters
Insurers are facing rising losses from natural catastrophes, such as floods and hurricanes, according to reinsurance behemoth Swiss Re, with this year the fifth in a row that these are set to exceed $100 billion
‘Nat cat’ losses are on track to top $135 billion this year, up 17% on last year, a report from the Swiss group says, while losses from man-made events are expected to fall 7% to around $9 billion.
At least two-thirds of 2024’s losses were in the US, where the massive Helene and Milton hurricanes laid waste to Florida in September and October, while floods wrought damage in Spain and the Middle East.
Balz Grollimund, Swiss Re’s head of catastrophe perils, said: “By favouring the conditions leading to many of this year’s catastrophes, climate change is also playing an increasing role.
11.26am: FirstGroup adds new rail route
FirstGroup PLC (LSE:FGP) has unveiled plans for privately-funded rail services to Wales and Devon under the open access scheme, a day after the government confirmed it would renationalise its South Western railway franchise.
Boss Graham Sutherland says growing the group’s ‘open access’ rail portfolio is a “key priority” and the new Carmarthen-to-Paddington service will “significantly bolster our footprint”.
Other applications are also pending, and if successful, these would almost treble open access capacity over the next few years.
Shares in the company are up 0.6% this morning.
11.07am: Warpaint swoops for smaller rival
Warpaint London PLC (AIM:W7L) has struck a deal to buy smaller rival Brand Architekts Group PLC (LSE:BAR) for £13.88 million.
It will pay 48p per share, representing a 100% premium to Brand Architekts’ closing value on Wednesday, Warpaint said, with Brand Architekts shareholders able to elect to receive shares as an alternative.
“As part of a larger group, we believe applying our established supply and distribution channels and approach to Brand Architekts will improve efficiency, reduce costs and drive profitability,” Warpaint chief executive Sam Bazini commented.
Warpaint also proposed a placing to raise £14 million and a retail offer to raise up to £1 million to pay for the deal, at a price of 510p per share.
10.41am: Bitcoin caution advised
Bitcoin topped $100K following an announcement from Donald Trump that he had nominated Paul Atkins to replace Gary Gensler as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Atkins was previously appointed by George W. Bush as SEC Commissioner from 2002 to 2008, with Trump’s promoting Atkins’ crypto chops in a social media post, saying that he “recognizes that digital assets & other innovations are crucial to Making America Greater than Ever Before”.
Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, says: “Even with this milestone reached, we’re still reasonably early in this bull market if past years and cycles are anything to go by.
“Historically the peak of the bitcoin bull market has formed 12-18 months after the block reward halving. With the most recent halving having occurred in April 2024, this puts a timeline of the end of 2025 or early 2026 for when the peak of the bull market should occur.”
But he notes that it is not unusual to see pullbacks of 20-to-40% in the bitcoin price during bull markets.
“With the price reaching such a significant milestone as $100,000 and it being holiday season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pull back from this level, as investors take some money off the table before the trend continues on,” Peters adds.
Jake Webster, managing director of asset management company Seventy Ninth Group, said it is “a pivotal moment for digital currencies” and he has some words of caution as well.
“But investors should approach Bitcoin with caution,” he says, as the no1 crypto has shown it can rise and fall significantly and dramatically throughout its history.
“The issue with digital currencies, like Bitcoin, is their value is not tied to physical assets or a business, for instance,” he says.
“Value is often derived from the popularity and use case of the coin, and many coins have yet to find a use case.”
Meanwhile, in stocks, the FTSE is continuing to hover just above the flat-line, but the FTSE 250 has dropped into the red, down 0.1%.
In the year to date, the blue-chip index and its mid-cap sibling are up just over 11% and 13% respectively.
10.21am: Construction rebound on the back of commercial projects
The UK construction PMI rose to 55.2 in November from 54.3 the month before, above the consensus forecast of 53.5.
The S&P Global/CIPS construction PMI survey rebounded after a dip in October, mostly driven by a surge in the commercial activity index, which offset a poor month for housing, where the activity balance dropped for a second month in a row, below 50, which signals contraction.
Some of the forward-looking indicators in the survey fell sharply, with new orders dropping and the future activity index both dropping but remaining in positive territory.
It “suggests that the construction sector has quickly shrugged off any uncertainty associated with the Budget in October but that businesses have moderated their expectations of rapid growth in the sector”, said Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“We estimate that the headline PMI is consistent with construction sector output rising 0.9% on a three-month-on-three-month basis, up from 0.7% last month,” the economists added, noting that this survey revealed some positive impact from the Budget, which was missing from surveys of other sectors of the economy.
“Government investment should help sustain that. But the PMI also reveals the disappointment in the Budget, with the end of stamp duty relief in April, as well as higher market interest rate expectations and a lack of progress on planning reform, likely cutting housebuilding sentiment.”
10.04am: Vodafone ‘now has to deliver’
After today’s approval of the Vodafone UK merger with Three, analyst Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell says “long-suffering shareholders” in the UK telecoms group will hope the deal “is the launchpad for the business to finally show some dynamism after years of stasis”.
He notes that the deal comes with strings attached, including the need to invest heavily in the UK’s 5G network and cap tariffs for three years, with the regulator peering over their shoulder, “like a teacher looming over an errant pupil” to ensure these terms are met.
“If nothing else, there will be relief on the part of investors that the deal has been concluded and everyone can move on,” says Coatsworth, pointing out that Vodafone has a long list of other issues to address, including weak performance in the German market, where it has been affected by regulatory changes.
“With the Three deal concluded, patience for any future messages of Vodafone being in transition is likely to run thin. The company must now deliver.”
9.43am: AJ Bell notches new record high after more record results
AJ Bell PLC (LSE:AJB) shares have climbed to a new record high as the investment platform announced a £30 million share buyback after a year of strong growth in profits, users and assets under administration.
The Salford-based company said 66,000 customers joined the site over the past year, taking its total up by 14 per cent to 542,000, and AUM up 22% to a record £86.5 billion, with inflows of £6.1 billion compared to £4.2bn a year ago.
As well as the buyback, the FTSE 250-listed group said it would increase its dividend for the year by 16 per cent to 12.5p.
9.35am: Frasers swimming against the tide
Frasers Group is “swimming against the tide”, says Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, as hot on the heels of the company’s relegation from the FTSE 100 being confirmed, it has cut its guidance.
“Nearer term, the current clouds which are overhanging over the retail sector are weighing on performance,” he says.
“Consumer sentiment is patchy at best, retail sales are under pressure and the general economic backdrop has lessened consumer propensity to spend.
“Meanwhile, a failed bid for Mulberry and public disagreements with Boohoo have been unwelcome distractions, and the group has found itself under increasing pressure as investors seek better value elsewhere in the sector.”
He says “there should be reasons for optimism as the group has highlighted”, including geographically diversification and new partnerships in Australia and Africa, in addition to investments in and partnerships with global names such as Nike, Adidas, Hugo Boss and Prade Beauty.
“There has been something of a perfect storm affecting the overall picture, and the previously weak trading updates from the likes of Nike which weighed on the Frasers share price given the connection was compounded by a 42% decline in the Hugo Boss share price as the luxury sector continues to reel from its own issues,” says Hunter, which means that while Frasers has been “peddling frantically” it “finds itself swimming against the tide”.
9.11am: Bitcoin party
Earlier this morning bitcoin topped the symbolic $100,000 mark, and has kept going, now surpassing $102,000.
Crypto fans partied overnight as the landmark number approached with impromptu celebrations breaking out in the real and digital worlds.
On social media, crypto investors shared videos of people crowding around to watch the price move closer and closer to the milestone.
Bitcoin has been on a tear ever since crypto-friendly Donald Trump won the US Presidential election, but the final push came from his nomination of Paul Atkins as the new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner.
the guy who paid a pizza with 10,000 bitcoin must be crying
at today’s value he paid $1 billion for a cheese mushroom green pepper pizza pic.twitter.com/g1aWuspydS
— ram (@0xRamonos) December 5, 2024
True #Bitcoin Story pic.twitter.com/oG4HaQFsLX
— Bold Bitcoin (@BoldBitcoin) December 4, 2024
9.03am: European markets on the front foot
The FTSE 100 is inching up but with a gain of 0.1% is still lagging behind its continental counterparts.
Even France’s CAC 40, where despite the government losing a no-confidence vote after the close yesterday, a gain of 0.7% takes it to a three-week high.
Germany’s DAX is up 0.2%, Italy’s FTSE MIB has added 0.7% and top of the pops is Spain’s IBEX 35 with a gain of 0.9%.
The continent-wide Euro Stoxx 600 index is up 0.3%, topped by German copper recycler Arubis’s 14% gain, HelloFresh rising 10% and Watches of Switzerland Group in third with a 7.4% increase.
8.37am: Positive reports
London’s blue-chip and mid-caps indices are both in positive territory now, with the latter led by a trio of companies providing updates today.
Future PLC (LSE:FUTR), owner of Marie Claire, The Week and Go-Compare, shares jumped 13% as it published results where it expressed confidence in meeting current market expectations for 2025 and announced a new £55 million share buyback.
John Wood Group PLC (LSE:WG.) is up 9.5% after signing three major agreements with BP PLC (LSE:BP.), covering all of the oil giant’s business units, including offshore and onshore, to provide engineering and project delivery services for their capital projects worldwide.
Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (LSE:WOSG) climbed 5.8% higher as the retailer unveiled an uptick in revenue in the second quarter, and kept guidance unchanged for the full year.
8.13am: FTSE dips as Frasers flops
The FTSE 100 has started Thursday’s trading slightly lower, down four points at 8,332.
A big early faller was Frasers Group PLC (LSE:FRAS), down almost 15% after the Sports Direct, Slazenger and Sofa.com owner cut its full-year profit guidance.
The retailer said “both ahead of and after the recent Budget, consumer confidence has weakened and recent trading conditions have been tougher”.
Other fallers include British Land, down 4%, as it is one of four blue-chips going ex-dividend today, as well as Next PLC, Intermediate Capital Group PLC and LondonMetric Property.
Vodafone shares are up 0.6% after the Three merger was apporoved by the CMA>
7.58am: Frasers lowers outlook
Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group PLC (LSE:FRAS) has posted results showing a small fall in half-year profits and a lowered outlook for the full year, blaming weaker consumer confidence and tougher recent trading conditions since the Budget.
The Sports Direct owner reported Adjusted profit before tax came in at £299.20 million for the 26 weeks ending 27 October, down 1.5% versus a year ago, as revenues fell 8.3% to £2.54 billion.
Even though the retailer achieved £74.70 million in cost savings and synergies from automation and integration of acquisitions, retail gross margins improved only marginally and other operating costs increased.
Full-year adjusted PBT is now seen in the range of £550 million to £600 million, with “at least £50 million of incremental costs” going into the 2026 financial year as a result of the recent Budget.
7.44am: Shell and Equinor to merge UK offshore arms
In more merger news, Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) and Equinor Equinor ASA have agreed to combine their UK offshore businesses to form a new company which will be the UK North Sea’s biggest independent producer.
Merging oil & gas assets and staff, the incorporated joint venture will be set up “to sustain domestic oil and gas production and security of energy supply in the UK”, the pair said.
On completion, Shell and Equinor will both own a 50% stake.
“With the once prolific basin now maturing and production naturally declining, the combination of portfolios and expertise will allow continued economic recovery of this vital UK resource. The new company will be more agile, focused, cost-competitive and strategically well positioned to maximise the value of its combined portfolios on the UK continental shelf,” they said.
7.29am: Vodafone-Three merger approved
The CMA says it has approved the merger of the UK mobile networks of Vodafone and Three is based on legally binding commitments to invest £11 billion over the next eight year, cap certain tariffs for three years and give virtual mobile providers access to pre-set wholesale prices and contract terms.
After an 18-month review process, the antitrust watchdog green-lit the deal on the basis of these terms, with the investment to be overseen by both Ofcom and the CMA, with the merged company also required to publish an annual report setting out its progress on the implementation of the network plan
Vodafone boss Margherita Della Valle said the merger “creates a new force in UK mobile, unleashing more competition and investment to transform the UK telecoms landscape”, with £11 billion of investment committed to building “the UK’s biggest and best network” over the next eight years.
The new network will reach 99% of the population and benefit over 50 million customers, the companies said, and use no public funding.
The merger is expected to formally complete during the first half of 2025.
7.16am: FTSE 100 called lower
The FTSE 100 has been called lower again on Thursday, despite gains being made for US and European markets.
Futures markets had the London benchmark falling 12 points, reducing the index further after it fell almost 24 points the day before to 8,335.8.
There could be a boost from news this morning that the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority has approved the merger of Vodafone Group PLC (LSE:VOD) and Three to create an £11 billion mobile network. More on that in a moment.
Overnight, Wall Street set new record highs across the board, with the Nasdaq jumping 1.3%, the Dow Jones rising 0.7% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.6%.
Asian markets are mixed, but mainly in the green, with the Hang Seng the exception, down 1.1%.
5am: What to watch out for today
Balfour, Watches of Switzerland, DS Smith and AJ Bell are among those in line to report on a busier Thursday diary.
Will Balfour Beatty offer any guidance on yet another buyback… Read more
Watches of Switzerland is set to face continued pressure on persistent luxury sector headwinds… Read more
Announcements due:
Trading updates: Balfour Beatty plc
Interims: Baltic Classifieds Group PLC, Carclo PLC, Sdi Group PLC, DS Smith PLC, Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (LSE:WOSG)
Finals: AJ Bell PLC (LSE:AJB), Future PLC (LSE:FUTR)
US earnings: Signet Jewelers Ltd, CleanSpark Inc, Docusign Inc, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, Lululemon Athletica Inc, UiPath Inc
AGMs: Doric Nimrod Air Three Ltd, Doric Nimrod Air Two Ltd, Gabelli Merger Plus Trust PLC, Global Petroleum, New Star Investment Trust PLC, Solgold PLC, Volta Finance Ltd, YouGov PLC, Zanaga Iron Ore Company Ltd
Economic announcements: PMI Construction (UK), Continuing Claims (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), ISM Services (US)
Ex-dividends to reduce FTSE 100 by: 1.17