Key events
What will happen if Barnier loses the no-confidence vote?
French prime minister Michel Barnier is bracing for a no-confidence vote tomorrow (or possibly Thursday). The high-stakes parliamentary vote could trigger a financial crisis for the eurozone’s second-largest economy and powerful EU member. If Barnier loses the vote, he will likely stay in power in a caretaker capacity while the country’s unpopular president, Emmanuel Macron, tries to find a replacement, but there is a range of other possibilities. Here is a little more detail about what will happen if the government falls (full explainer here):
Barnier has said there could be “serious financial turbulence” if his budget fails to pass and the government falls, and markets have already responded with alarm, with the interest rate on French bonds coming close to that of their Greek counterparts last week.
There is no fear of a US-style shutdown since France’s constitution allows for a government – possibly even a caretaker government – to pass an emergency law in effect prolonging the previous year’s budget for a few months, so public sector workers, for example, continue to be paid.
In terms of France’s governance, if the National Rally (RN) does join forces with the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) to bring Barnier down, Macron has a range of choices. But he is constitutionally constrained by the fact that, because he dissolved parliament in June, he cannot do so again until June 2025.
The president could simply reinstate Barnier as prime minister, which parliament would see as provocative and most observers therefore consider unlikely. He could also ask France’s warring political parties to try to build a new coalition, this time with more support.
That could, for example, involve renewed centrist attempts to peel more moderate elements of the NFP, including the PS, away from the leftist bloc. Although the NFP has frequently appeared fractured, there is no guarantee that would work.
Macron could also decide to appoint a technocratic government to oversee France’s administration for another six months. Finally, he could himself resign, triggering new presidential elections, but for the time being that is seen as unlikely.
France at ‘turning point’ as government heads towards collapse
Welcome to our live coverage of the political crisis engulfing France as the country faces the potential downfall of its government.
It is looking almost certain that Michel Barnier, the centre-right prime minister appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron after July’s inconclusive parliamentary election, will lose a no-confidence motion over the budget tomorrow.
Barring a last-minute surprise, his fragile coalition will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote since 1962.
Barnier’s budget, which seeks to reduce France’s spiralling public deficit through €60bn ($62.9bn; £49.6bn) in tax hikes and spending cuts, has been opposed by politicians on both the left and far right.
He used special powers to force the belt-tightening social security budget through the lower house of parliament without a final vote after a last-minute concession was not enough to win over far-right the National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen. Barnier’s minority government had relied on RN support for its survival.
The left and the far right combined have enough votes to topple Barnier, and Le Pen confirmed on Monday that her party would vote for the left-wing coalition’s no-confidence bill as well as her own.
France’s finance minister, Antoine Armand, has warned that France is at a critical juncture due to uncertainty over the budget and future composition of the government.
“The country is at a turning point,” Armand told France 2 TV this morning, adding politicians had a responsibility “not to plunge the country into uncertainty” with a no-confidence vote. Barnier is due to address television news programmes around 1900 GMT. We will be providing updates throughout the day.