Thursday briefing: The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire brings respite – but for how long, and what comes next?

Good morning. At 4am local time on Wednesday, a ceasefire began between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. By that time, some displaced residents of Lebanon’s devastated south were already on their way back, many of them wondering as they travelled whether the homes they had fled were still there.

The pause in hostilities has been broadly welcomed in Lebanon, Israel and beyond, both for those who have been exiled on either side of the border and as a step towards regional stability. There are even some optimistic claims that it might help bring about a ceasefire in Gaza. But as the Lebanon ceasefire begins, a formidable task remains: the reconstruction of a shattered region of a country that is perilously close to being a failed state.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s William Christou, as he returned from a reporting trip to the southern border, about what he saw and what comes next. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Assisted dying | The former president of the supreme court, who ruled on the most high-profile assisted dying cases, has declared his support for the law change. David Neuberger’s intervention came as MPs backing the bill say they believe they have the numbers for Friday’s historic vote to pass.

2. UK news | Police believe Mohamed Al Fayed may have raped and abused more than 111 women over nearly four decades, with his youngest victim said to have been 13 years old. The Metropolitan police said that five unnamed individuals were being investigated for facilitating the offences.

3. Ukraine | Ukraine’s power infrastructure was “under massive enemy attack” on Thursday, the country’s energy minister said, after a nationwide air raid alert was declared due to incoming missiles.

4. Weather | The third named storm of the autumn, Conall, has brought more disruption to the UK, with trains cancelled in parts of southern England on Wednesday and the Met Office warning of delays on roads and potential power cuts.

5. Trade | Canada’s federal government and the premiers of the 10 provinces have agreed to work together against a threat by US president-elect Donald Trump to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports. Possible retaliatory measures are under consideration after Trump said one of his first executive orders would be a 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico.

In depth: Tackling mass displacement and destruction with meagre resources

William Christou set off from Beirut to the devastated port city of Tyre at 7am yesterday. You can read about his visit here. The drive usually takes just over an hour: this time, it was twice as long. “There were jubilant scenes on the highway,” he said. “There were people clapping, cars with mattresses on top, a minority waving Hezbollah flags. There was a sense of excitement at going home.”

Later, the traffic intensified: the BBC’s Hugo Bachega reported that the drive from Beirut to Sidon, the first major city on the coast south of Beirut, took more than four hours instead of the usual 20 minutes.

But on a tour of areas near the border organised by Hezbollah later in the day, a grimmer reality presented itself. About 6km from the border, William saw two dogs eating the corpse of a dead horse in an otherwise deserted village, Silaa. In a nearby town, Zibqeen, two sisters called Zeinab and Dina, aged 19 and 28, said that they had started driving at 3am. “They were excited to make the journey, but sad for those who had died, and for the damage that has been done,” William said. “Their house had been destroyed.”

The return | Many will have to stay in shelters

At least 1.2 million Lebanese people have fled their homes since the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel began. About 96,000 Israelis have been displaced on the Israeli side of the border. According to the International Organisation for Migration, more than a fifth of internally displaced people in Lebanon are in collective shelters and more than a third are children.

Yesterday, Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri told those forced to flee: “I invite you to return to your homes … return to your land.” But the Lebansese government and military, as well as the Israeli military, have warned people not to rush back to war-torn areas. And it is likely that most of those going home are realistic about the fact that they will not be able to stay there, William said. “They are mostly just checking on their houses – many of them will be gone, and there may be unexploded bombs.”

The Lebanese Real Estate Authority warned that bombs, weapons and booby-traps could still be in and around people’s homes, and urged the authorities to conduct a thorough survey before people are given the green light. “So they will still need to be housed elsewhere, whether that’s in shelters or with relatives,” William said. “The internal displacement crisis will continue.”

The reconstruction | A huge task with few resources

More than 100,000 homes have been destroyed in southern Lebanon, the International Committee of the Red Cross says. The destruction is most intense in the border area, which Israel has been attempting to clear out to prevent cross-border attacks by Hezbollah in the future: an NBC News investigation using satellite data found that 42% of buildings in areas seized by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been destroyed. Water and electricity supplies have widely been cut off, as well.

There were some nascent signs of a reconstruction effort yesterday, William said, with excavators arriving, rubble being removed and roads being cleared. “But it’s not clear how the work can be done on a large scale.” Lebanon has been in the grip of corruption and an economic crisis for years, and is virtually a failed state, while Hezbollah, which has long effectively ruled much of the south, has been vastly weakened by Israel’s onslaught. After the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, “the Gulf states [and] Russia put money in. It’s not clear if they’re interested this time.”

Meanwhile, an international summit in Paris last month secured about $1bn in reconstruction pledges from international donors. But a World Bank report two weeks ago estimated the damage and loss from the conflict so far to be about $8.5bn. Lebanon’s GDP is $20.1bn.

Hezbollah | Claims of victory undermined by severity of losses

Hezbollah might once have been expected to fill much of that gap, perhaps using resources funnelled from its Iranian sponsors. That appears less likely this time. Yesterday, William asked Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah how it would be involved in reconstruction efforts: “He answered in vagaries. He couldn’t say how long it would take.”

Despite the vast losses it has suffered, with all of its senior leadership killed, including secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, and its capacity to wage war vastly diminished, Hezbollah has sought to present the ceasefire as a victory. “The new secretary general, Naim Qassem, made a speech recently saying that it’s going to be Hezbollah cleaning up the roads and coordinating the work,” William said. “They say they’re not going anywhere.”

But whether they will retain the support they have long enjoyed among a section of Lebanon’s population is not clear.

One image in particular, which summarised how much they have been weakened, stuck with William: “In 2000, Nasrallah gave a famous speech to a huge crowd at the Bint Jbeil stadium after the Israelis withdrew from south Lebanon. We went there, and there’s still a little memorial where he stood. Hassan Fadlallah spoke in the same place with an audience of a dozen journalists and empty stands covered in wreckage. He declared victory, and it rang hollow.”

The Lebanese army | A new role – but a very weak force

In theory, the Lebanese army will now be taking charge of the south of the country, and the ceasefire calls for a deployment of 5,000 troops. Yesterday, former Lebanese army general Khalil Helou described the ceasefire as a chance for the army to “assert itself”, and added: “It’s not only a matter of hope, it’s a matter of taking responsibility.”

The army lacks the cohesion and support it may need to take a more commanding role. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economic crisis has left the army denuded of resources, and at least for now it has no significant presence in the south.

“It was telling that this tour was organised by Hezbollah, not the army,” William said. “No one was manning the army checkpoints. And Unifil [the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon] says that it can’t always coordinate patrols with the army because they don’t have gas for their vehicles. Soldiers are paid about $100 [£79] a month.”

What happens next | Anxiety about whether the ceasefire will hold

The ceasefire has been agreed for 60 days. In theory, it should then lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities. “But there is a lot of apprehension in Lebanon about whether the 60 days will hold,” William said. “That’s not so much on the Hezbollah side: they have their tail between their legs, and they’re not in a position to fight.”

But Israel has reserved its right to respond to military activity on the ground, and the IDF said that warning shots were fired yesterday to dissuade suspected Hezbollah operatives in border areas. “The worry is: if Israel sees weapons being transported and launches a drone strike, would Hezbollah then respond? It will be quieter in the short term, no doubt. But in the long term, Hezbollah is going to want to rebuild, and to return to a scenario where it is able, despite an agreement that says otherwise, to operate freely.”

As for the wider picture in the region: in this analysis piece, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent Julian Borger writes that Israeli domestic politics mean that “the ceasefire in Lebanon arguably makes it less likely that an agreement can be struck in Gaza”. For now, at least, the prospects for real stability at Israel’s borders look remote.

What else we’ve been reading

• A meat market in central London which has been operating for more than 800 years is being shut down. Caroline Davies spoke to shocked workers about the closure of the Smithfield site. Nimo

• You might know that famous portrait of Samuel Beckett, staring straight down the lens of the camera; photographer John Haynes’ favourite, detailed in this week’s My Best Shot column (and pictured above), is a different one. Unsurprisingly, Beckett was petrifying. Archie

• In this week’s edition of The Long Wave, Nesrine Malik spoke with the Guardian’s South America correspondent, Tiago Rogero, about Brazil’s Black Consciousness Day, a celebration that goes back decades but has finally been given formal recognition as a national holiday. Nimo

• There are few better British writers on public transport than Jonn Elledge, and his column about prosecutions of rail passengers for fare evasion over trivial sums, and why the problem eventually comes back to central government, is excellent. Although it might also drive you mad. Archie

• Donald Trump has spent much of the last year talking and thinking about retribution. Now that he’s in about to take office, New York magazine’s Kerry Howley takes a look at what it could mean in reality for those on the president-elect’srevenge list. Nimo

Sport

Champions League | Goals from Alexis Mac Allister and Cody Gakpo, and a penalty save by Caoimhín Kelleher from Kylian Mbappé, helped Liverpool to a 2-0 victory over Real Madrid. Morgan Rogers’ late goal was ruled out for a foul, a decision Ollie Watkins and Unai Emery both felt was unfair on the hosts, in Aston Villa’s goalless draw with Juventus.

Cricket | Shoaib Bashir took four wickets as England held New Zealand to 319-8 in the first innings of the first Test in Christchurch. Kane Williamson top scored with 93 for the hosts, who had been going well at 199-3 before a flurry of wickets for a sometimes sloppy England.

Football | The Football Association is investigating allegations that the referee David Coote discussed giving a yellow card before a game. The allegations centre on messages Coote exchanged with a friend before and after he refereed the Championship game between Leeds and West Brom in October 2019, in which he booked the Leeds defender Ezgjan Alioski.

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