A ceasefire in Lebanon is a relief to many — until Netanyahu teases his next big plan

The ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is an obvious relief to the Lebanese people and most likely to both Hezbollah and Iran.

The chance to stop civilian suffering and the dangerous destabilisation of Lebanon are important outcomes here.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also gotten a lot of what he wanted in Lebanon, although he has not claimed victory.

There are three major things Israel has achieved with its devastating response to the Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks that have pulled Lebanon into the Gaza war.

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Hezbollah loses leaders and clout

Firstly, Hezbollah’s leadership and facilities have been decimated.

Everyone from the hugely influential secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah to senior military commanders — even the group’s public relations spokesman — have been killed.

The damage to Hezbollah’s facilities in southern Beirut is hard to independently quantify, but the group — which the Australian government classifies as a terrorist organisation — is believed to have suffered enormous losses in both weapons supply and production capacity.

Hezbollah’s social and political standing as the protector of and provider for much of Lebanon’s Shia Muslim community has also been badly damaged.

While Hezbollah has continued to fight hard in Lebanon’s south and launch rockets and drones in consistent numbers, it has been taking heavy losses while doing so, and its ability to resupply has been severely diminished.

It’s hard to say how much its political power in Lebanon has been diminished, but the group is far from what it was before the war.

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‘Unity of fronts’ cracks

The second Israeli achievement is both political and military — the decoupling of Lebanon and Gaza.

This major win undermines a key strategy of the Iranian-backed groups around the region, something beloved of the late Nasrallah, called the “unity of fronts” approach.

It was the belief that combined attacks from Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen — not to mention the hugely concerning development of Iran and Israel openly trading fire — would pressure Israel to withdraw from Gaza.

That has failed, with Israel getting continued freedom to operate on its “southern front” and leaving Palestinians isolated.

Hezbollah has managed to inflict some casualties on the Israeli Army, and its drone attacks showed there was a way to circumvent Israel’s vaunted rocket and missile defences.

But, ultimately, it provoked a war that saw hundreds of thousands of Lebanese displaced, large parts of southern Lebanon, Beirut and the Bekaa Valley destroyed, and more than 3,500 Lebanese killed without influencing events in Gaza.

Buffer zone and extra time

The third major Israeli achievement is that the ceasefire may provide Israel with something it has wanted for a long time — a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah forced to pull its forces back from the border villages and the Lebanese Army taking their place.

This was something that was meant to occur after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, but the group increased its presence and capabilities in the south instead.

The 60-day ceasefire implementation period gives breathing space and broad scope for Israel to resume hostilities if it thinks conditions are not being met.

And after Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, it will do so with an even friendlier administration in Washington.

Bigger, more dangerous conflict looms

There is one other thing, smaller in regional significance, which appears to have played an influential role in Israel’s willingness to sign a ceasefire now — that of forced enlistment of ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israeli military.

The question is one of the most contentious in Israeli society.

This political problem, made urgent by Israel’s need to rest the IDF reservists bearing the brunt of the combat load, was reportedly threatening Mr Netanyahu’s ruling coalition.

Now that enlistment can be delayed or softened, reducing the pressure to resolve this long-running dispute.

You can see this in the emphasis commentators sympathetic to Mr Netanyahu are putting on the chance to rest combat brigades and allow Israeli reservists to return to their families and jobs.

As has frequently been the case over the past 14 months, Israel’s domestic politics has a quite obvious influence on its external actions.

Finally, the hopeful atmosphere of a lifesaving ceasefire is tempered by two things.

One is that the conflict in Gaza remains unresolved and the situation there ever more desperate.

Two is that Mr Netanyahu is citing an imminent conflict with Iran as a key reason for withdrawing from Lebanon now.

Israel and Iran remain locked in an escalating cycle, even if a Lebanon ceasefire removes some of the pressure.

If Israel is withdrawing because it needs to renew forces for a more intense conflict with Iran, the region is still facing the possibility of a much bigger and more dangerous war.

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