A ceasefire that leaves Russia in control of land it has captured and does not include serious security guarantees could prove unpopular and would probably trigger elections in Ukraine.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, said Ukraine would not resist American pressure for talks because of the danger of a suspension of aid.
He said the Ukrainian government might accept shelving Nato membership if it can get security guarantees akin to the US agreements with South Korea and Israel.
Russia expects ‘new territorial realities’
The Kremlin has yet to comment on possible peace plans, but Russia has few incentives to make peace immediately because its forces are making steady gains on the battlefield and it believes it can sustain the economic strain of the war for at least another year.
Dmitri Trenin, a well-connected Russian political commentator and former GRU officer, said on Thursday that the Kremlin would not take seriously any plan based merely on a freezing of the current frontline.
It would also need concessions related to “the nature of the future Ukrainian regime, its military and military-economic potential, as well as the military-political status of Ukraine” as well as “new territorial realities,” he wrote in Kommersant, a Russian broadsheet.
The version of the plan Mr Trump opts for is likely to depend on his choice of cabinet.
Mike Pompeo, who served as Mr Trump’s Secretary of State during his first term and is now tipped to head the Pentagon, has criticised the Biden administration for providing too little help too slowly and is likely to resist a deal that could be interpreted as a Russian victory.
Richard Grennell, Mr Trump’s former ambassador to Berlin and envoy to the Balkans, has said he would back “autonomous” zones inside Ukraine.
That suggests a repeat of the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which saw Russia try to use areas of Donbas it controlled as a trojan horse for controlling Ukrainian foreign policy.