UK and European leaders will collectively react to Donald Trump’s win as they meet to discuss security today – and it casts a very long shadow.
As the enormity of the US result sinks in, Sir Keir Starmer will join a summit in Budapest hosted by the president-elect’s biggest cheerleader on the continent, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Mr Orban, regarded with suspicion by the rest of the EU because of his ties to Vladimir Putin, is delighted by Mr Trump’s victory.
He told journalists at the European Parliament last month, where Hungary holds the rotating presidency, he would be opening “several bottles of champagne if Mr Trump comes back”.
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The European Political Community – which holds these summits every six months – was set up in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as a chance for the EU27 to meet wider partners such as the UK, Turkey and Caucasus nations to discuss key security challenges including conflict and irregular migration.
But the US result is likely to completely overshadow the discussions, as Mr Trump’s approach to Ukraine – and whether he will try to force a peace plan in which the Ukrainians must give up territory – will dominate the agenda. President Zelenskyy is attending.
Mr Orban is also a supporter of a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while most of the rest of the EU largely supports the integrity of Ukraine – paving the way for potential tensions.
Sir Keir will be chairing the migration session and will announce three new intelligence-sharing agreements with Balkan nations to crack down on people smuggling.
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But defence considerations are likely to be front and centre, with the prospect of the US disengaging from Europe, and pressure on NATO members who are not yet meeting the 2% defence spending target to step up.
Sir Keir has already faced questions at home about when he will meet his campaign promise to spend 2.5%.
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What will Trump 2.0 look like?
In a sign of the already changed atmosphere, the German defence minister, who met his French counterpart yesterday, said after Mr Trump’s victory: “They’ll be able to do less in Europe. We need to fill this gap to be more credible in terms of deterrence.”
The aftershocks of events across the Atlantic will be very evident – we may get the first signals of how Europe will respond.