Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in four new national polls out Sunday and Monday, but three other surveys are a dead heat—as surveys show a statistically tied contest for the White House marked by near-tossups in all seven swing states, keeping the race wildly unpredictable just one day before the election.
Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump during a presidential debate in Philadelphia on … [+]
Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 49%-48% with likely voters in the HarrisX/Forbes poll, which was taken between Wednesday and Friday and has a margin of error of one point.
The vice president has a four-point lead (51%-47%) in a new PBS News/NPR/Marist survey, and she has a two-point lead, 49%-47%, in a Morning Consult survey of likely voters out Sunday with a margin of error of one point—a slight tightening of the race since Harris led by three points last week and four points in two prior Morning Consult polls.
The vice president has a similar three-point 49%-46% advantage in an ABC/Ipsos poll, compared to her 51%-47% lead last week and her 50%-48% edge in early October.
Harris is up 49%-48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters released Thursday—but some 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters could still change their minds.
Harris also leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in an Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.
Harris is up 51%-47%—with just 3% still undecided—in a very large likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a survey backed by several universities and conducted by YouGov, which polled around 50,000 people from Oct. 1 to 25.
The widely followed Times poll represented a decline in support for Harris since the newspaper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump—and the paper called the results “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even when they’ve lost the White House.
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Harris erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Have Frequently Been Wrong
And there is a lot of speculation on how they’re wrong this year—and who that may benefit. Read all about it in this story.
Who Do The Polls Predict Will Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?
Trump is favored to win the Electoral College 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Statistician Nate Silver’s model shows Trump with a 51.5% chance of winning.
Big Number
1 point. That’s Harris’ average lead over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Trump up by 0.2, and Nate Silver has Harris up 0.9 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, according to polling averages by the Silver Bulletin. That means Trump would win the electoral college if every swing state’s polling is completely accurate—but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.
Surprising Fact
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
How Did The Debate Impact Polls?
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.
Further Reading
New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Trump Leads Harris By 2 Points—But 12% Are Still Deciding (Forbes)
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump Up In Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads In Latest Survey—But Undecided Voters Could Tip Results (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)