Topline
The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the final pre-election New York Times survey showing Harris narrowly ahead (but within the margin of error) in four of the seven states, Trump up in one and a tie in two others—while an Emerson College poll out Monday showed the opposite.
Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
Key Facts
Nevada: Polls are mixed—the New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading Trump 49%-46%, but Emerson found a tie at 48%, and Harris is up 51%-47% in a CES survey, though Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey. Trump is ahead 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Big Number
1.1 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
Tangent
Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters across all seven battlegrounds, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll out Thursday, a statistical tie—but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to shift.
Key Background
Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)