Citizens of Japan will be voting in the country’s tightest election in years on Sunday, with new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba and his juggernaut Liberal Democratic party (LDP) facing potentially their worst result since 2009.
Opinion polls suggest the conservative LDP and its junior coalition partner may fall short of a majority, a result that could deal a knockout blow to Ishiba.
The 67-year-old former defence minister took office and called a snap election after being narrowly selected last month to lead the LDP, which has governed Japan for almost all of the past seven decades.
But voters in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been rankled by rising prices and the fallout from a party slush fund scandal that helped sink previous premier Fumio Kishida.
“We want to start afresh as a fair, just and sincere party, and seek your mandate,” Ishiba told supporters at a rally on Saturday.
He has pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s falling population through family-friendly policies such as flexible working hours.
But he has since rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames. He also named only two women ministers in his cabinet.
The self-confessed security policy “geek” has backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of Nato to counter China, although he has since cautioned it would “not happen overnight”.
A poll on Friday by the Yomiuri Shimbun daily suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to get the 233 lower house seats needed for a majority.
Ishiba has set this threshold as his objective, and missing it would undermine his position in the LDP and mean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.
Local media speculated that Ishiba could even resign immediately to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the postwar period.
The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni who served for 54 days – four days more than British leader Liz Truss in 2022 – just after Japan’s 1945 defeat in the second world war.
“The situation is extremely severe,” Ishiba reportedly said on Friday.
In many districts, LDP candidates are neck-and-neck with those from the Constitutional Democratic party (CDP) – the second-biggest in parliament – led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.
“The LDP’s politics is all about quickly implementing policies for those who give them loads of cash,” Noda told his supporters on Saturday.
“But those in vulnerable positions, who can’t offer cash, have been ignored,” he added, accusing the LDP-led government of offering insufficient support for survivors of an earthquake in central Japan.
Noda’s stance “is sort of similar to the LDP’s. He is basically a conservative,” Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, told AFP. “The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP. Many voters think so.”
Ishiba promised to not actively support LDP politicians caught up in the funding scandal and running in the election, although they are still standing.
According to Japanese media, the party has also provided 20m yen (£100,000) each to district offices headed by these figures – reports Ishiba has called “biased” as “those candidates will not use the money”.
Hitomi Hisano, an undecided voter from the central Aichi region, told AFP in Tokyo that the LDP’s funding scandal was a big factor for him.
“The LDP has sat in power for too long. I see hubris in there,” the 69-year-old said. “So part of me wants to punish them.” But there aren’t other parties that are reliable enough to win my vote.”