North Korea’s shipment of at least 3,000 troops to Russia—the latest and largest step in a massive effort to help Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine—holds serious implications for both the war and global security.
First, it suggests that the Russian army is running low on manpower and supplies. Since he and Putin signed a partnership treaty back in June, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has sent Russia more than 1 million artillery shells. Now Kim is sending North Korean troops—many of them elite Special Forces—to augment the ill-equipped men that Russian commanders have hurled into combat like cannon fodder.
Since this war started in February 2022, an estimated 115,000 Russian troops have been killed and another 500,000 have been wounded. By comparison, in the 10 years of its war in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union lost about 15,000 soldiers—enough deaths in an unpopular war to help bring down the Kremlin’s Communist empire.
Ukrainians might view Putin’s clear desperation—the dependence of a once-and-aspiring “great power” on one of the world’s poorest despots—as an encouraging sign. However, the fresh supply of troops, who are now being trained in Russia’s Far East and might be ready for deployment in Ukraine as early as next month, could give Putin’s army a boost in firepower and morale just as it has begun to push back against Ukraine’s offensives into Russian territory.
Then there are possible broader implications. Large cargo-transport planes have been flying from Russia into North Korea. Daniel Sneider, lecturer of East Asian studies at Stanford University, sees “reasons to conclude” that the planes might be carrying technical supplies to help North Korea build or perfect long-range ballistic missiles, which could carry nuclear weapons.
As Sneider notes, this would be a “sharp departure” from Russia’s age-old policy on nuclear nonproliferation. Back during the Cold War, the Kremlin blocked its Warsaw Pact allies from developing or obtaining nuclear materials—it even confiscated some of those allies’ uranium mines. Since that era, the leaders of the Russian Federation, including Putin, have been leery of abetting the rise of nuclear-armed countries that the Kremlin can’t easily control.
Putin first turned to Chinese President Xi Jinping for help in the war, signing a partnership deal. However, since then, though Xi has supplied technical assistance and economic aid, he has held off on providing weapons. This may have led Putin to turn to Iran, mainly for drones, then to North Korea, for shells and now men.
It’s likely that Kim, whose army isn’t exactly overflowing with resources, asked for something in return. Missile technology may have been the deal-enhancer. Putin’s short-term needs in the war may have been compelling enough to justify compromising one of his long-term interests against the spread of nuclear weaponry.
This isn’t the first time North Korea has sent troops abroad to help allies. As far back as 1973, it sent troops to help Egypt in the Yom Kippur War against Israel. Since then, it sent troops to help Cambodia’s Pol Pot in his war against Vietnam and, more recently, to help Syrian leader Bashar Assad in his civil war.
However, the 3,000 or so Kim has sent to Russia—a figure first reported by the South Korean press and since confirmed by U.S. officials—far exceeds those earlier deployments, and some reports anticipate an additional 7,000 in preparation. What those troops will be doing in Ukraine is not yet clear. Nor is it known how enthused they will be as soldiers. It is unlikely that many of them speak Russian. Russia is reportedly paying them $2,000 a month for their mercenary services—a princely sum for North Koreans—but these salaries will likely be confiscated by the Pyongyang government.
Meanwhile, White House spokesman John Kirby said this week that if and when the North Korean troops arrive on the Ukrainian battlefield, they will be considered legitimate targets. In anticipation of widespread demoralization, Ukrainians have started to print flyers urging the North Koreans to defect, both from their Russian commanders and from their oppressors back home, promising that they will be treated well if they do.
Whatever happens, the war in Ukraine—like the war in the Middle East, though in a very different way—is spinning off in dangerous, unpredictable new directions.