Zelenskyy has pitched his ‘victory plan’ to NATO. Is peace possible in 2025?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is out spruiking his “victory plan” with his sights set on ending the war with Russia “no later than” 2025.

He pitched the multi-point plan to European leaders in Brussels this week, asking for an immediate NATO-membership invitation.

He also repeated requests for more weapons, and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

Mr Zelenskyy is scrambling to muster support for his plan at a critical time in the conflict.

Another bleak winter is approaching, and Ukraine’s weary, outnumbered forces are struggling to slow Moscow’s troops from seizing village after village in the east.

Then there is the looming possibility of Republican candidate Donald Trump returning to the White House at next month’s US presidential elections.

Analysts say peace may be a possibility next year, but with the current state of play it may not happen on Ukraine’s current terms.

What’s the latest on the ground?

Russia continues grinding offensive in Ukraine’s east

Russia has been focused on capturing the entirety of Donbas, which covers the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, since the start of the February 2022 invasion.

And in recent months, fighting along the eastern front has intensified.

Open-source data and battlefield reports indicate that in August Russian forces advanced in Donbas at their fastest rate in about two years.

Russia currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukrainian territory.

This month, Moscow managed to capture the key frontline town of Vuhledar, a bastion that had resisted intense attacks throughout the conflict.

Now they are edging closer to claiming the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

Military analysts say Russia’s gains in the east are underlying its vast superiority in troop numbers and weaponry.

Sydney University’s professor emeritus Graeme Gill, an expert in Russian politics, said Ukraine was being forced to retreat.

“Ukrainian forces have been in a process of retreat now for a considerable period of time,” he told the ABC.

“Unless things change significantly over the next few weeks, it’s likely Pokrovsk will fall to the Russians.”

Russia has also been expanding assaults in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The Kharkiv region has been coming under constant missile and drone strikes throughout most of the war.

Ukraine holds Russian territory in Kursk

Ukraine has managed to hold onto some territory in Russia’s Kursk region after staging a cross-border incursion in August.

In recent weeks, Moscow has been fighting back after Ukraine seized hundreds of square kilometres across the region.

A Ukrainian soldier operating in Kursk reported that the current ratio of Ukrainian to Russian troops was one to five, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank.

Regardless, Ukraine was continuing to attack and has maintained a foothold in Kursk of about 786 sq km.

Analysts believe one of the main reasons for the Kursk incursion was to divert Russian troops away from the eastern frontline.

But it failed to slow those advances and the operation was not generating the results Kyiv had hoped for.

“The incursion into Kursk was clearly designed by the Ukrainians to to divert some of the Russian forces away from the eastern front,” Professor Gill said.

“The Russians appear to be having success in the Kursk region without using large numbers of frontline troops from Ukraine.

Is support waning?

This week, the US announced a new $US425 million ($633 million) military assistance package for Ukraine after a call between President Joe Biden and Mr Zelenskyy.

It will include additional air defence capabilities, air-to-ground munitions, and armoured vehicles.

Australia also announced it would provide Ukraine with 49 of its US-made Abrams tanks as part a new aid package worth $245 million.

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who was attending the NATO defence ministers meeting in Brussels, said Australia continued to stand “shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine in their fight against Russia’s illegal invasion”.

While Western allies have continued to pledge further military aid for Ukraine, some leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have been facing pressure from the public to roll back support.

And there were signs support may be hurt by the increasing focus on conflicts in the Middle East.

Germany, Ukraine’s biggest military supporter in Europe, said it would provide a further 1.4 billion euros ($2.2 billion), with support from Belgium, Denmark and Norway, by the end of the year.

But its budget forecast for 2025 shows support for Ukraine is set to be halved.

What about Trump?

Professor Gill said “it was clear support for Ukraine was eroding”.

The Republican former president has frequently criticised Mr Zelenskyy on the campaign trail, repeatedly calling him “the greatest salesman on Earth” for having solicited and received billions of dollars of US military aid.

But most of Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine have centred on him claiming to be capable of ending the war in one day.

Speaking alongside Mr Zelenskyy after the pair met in New York in September, Trump highlighted his “very good relationships” with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainian president.

He insisted that he could broker a settlement between the two leaders “very quickly”.

There are fears among Ukrainians that Trump’s peace plan would involve handing over territory to Russia.

Professor Gill said if Trump was elected, Ukraine might be forced into talks with Moscow.

“I think peace by the end of 2025 is likely, but it’s not going to be the sort of peace Zelenskyy is talking about,” he said.

A ‘victory plan’ or list of demands?

With his “victory plan”, Mr Zelenskyy is trying to secure iron-clad security guarantees from key partners.

He is pushing for more air defence systems, and access to a broader range of intelligence from allies.

And he is again calling for the West to lift restrictions on Kyiv’s use of Western-delivered missiles to strike ammunition depots and other military facilities inside Russia.

Western allies are wary that Ukrainian strikes inside Russia will escalate the war, and have declined to lift their restrictions.

Mr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s supporters would be making a “big mistake” and strengthen Russia if they did not back the plan.

But he has been criticised by some Ukrainian MPs for presenting a what looks more like a list of demands, rather than a concrete peace strategy.

Professor Gill said “it’s not really a victory plan” and Mr Zelenskyy was simply reiterating requests from the past eight or nine months.

The only additions were a proposal for the use of Ukraine’s critical resources, such as lithium, gas and titanium.

And a promise to replace some US troops stationed across Europe with Ukrainian soldiers.

The Kremlin denounced Ukraine’s plan, saying Mr Zelenskky was trying to push NATO into the conflict and Ukraine needed to “sober up”.

Will NATO move on membership?

Joining NATO would give Ukraine guaranteed protection from the military alliance’s members.

But NATO said Ukraine cannot join while at war as this would draw the alliance directly into conflict with Russia.

Mr Putin has cited Ukraine’s potential NATO membership as a reason for the invasion.

NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte remained noncommittal after Mr Zelenskyy’s plan was unveiled.

“The plan has many aspects and many political and military issues we really need to hammer out with the Ukrainians to understand what is behind it, to see what we can do, what we cannot do,” he said.

Several key NATO members, such as the US and Germany, have been particularly wary about issuing a membership invitation.

Ahead of the Brussels summit, US ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters NATO was “not at the point right now where the alliance is talking about issuing an invitation in the short term”.

The German chancellor said: “You know Germany’s position on the issues involved. This will not change.”

At their summit in Washington in July, NATO’s 32 members declared Ukraine to be on an “irreversible” path to membership.

Any decision on offering to start membership talks is probably not likely before the next summit in the Netherlands in June.

ABC/Wires