Gathering in Ljubljana for their annual off-site meeting, policymakers refrained from signaling how quickly, and how deeply, it may cut again, and said its policy remains restrictive pointing to high domestic inflation and wage growth. “The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction,” the ECB said.
Earlier on Thursday, final data for September showed eurozone inflation dropped well below the ECB 2 percent target to 1.7 percent, a downward revision from an earlier estimate of 1.8. While the ECB said it expects prices to pick up again later in the year, it also hinted that price stability might be restored a little earlier than it previously thought. It now expects to declare victory “in the course of 2025”, having earlier predicted the second half of next year.
Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said last week that “the most recent data suggests” a return to price stability in the first quarter of next year.
Economists and investors expect the ECB to deliver another cut in December amid mounting signs that the region’s economy is running out of steam and that inflation has been brought under control.
“In our view, this is unlikely to be the last cut from the ECB this year,” said UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Dean Turner. “Another cut is likely in December, and we expect this will be followed by a series of cuts at every meeting through to June next year, with the deposit rate hitting 2 percent before the ECB reaches for the pause button.”
Investors will hope to get some signals on the interest rate path ahead during President Christine Lagarde press conference starting at 14:45 CET but may well be disappointed. “There is so much data coming in that I don’t see why Lagarde would have any incentive to send signals,” said Danske Bank economist Piet Christiansen.
(This article is being updated.)