So, the squeeze on non-doms is being watered down. Private equity bosses are likely to be spared the top rate of income tax on carried interest. VAT on school fees may be delayed.
Which leaves a list of potential tax rises on people who would not consider themselves fair game, or even particularly wealthy. The squeezed middle is once again likely to have to pick up the tab. Raising money through raids on pension saving, capital gains and inheritance will diminish the Chancellor’s fan base yet further if the questions from our investors are any guide.
Ordinary people, trying to do the right thing for their retirements and their families, are deeply concerned about what Oct 30 will bring. Perhaps most worryingly, there is anecdotal evidence that they are acting in anticipation of changes that may never happen in ways that may be bad for their financial security.
Not only will many of the mooted tax raids be deeply unpopular, they also risk being ineffective or difficult to implement. Take the much-speculated assault on one of the best reasons to invest in a pension – the ability to withdraw 25pc of your pot tax-free up to £268,275.
While a rational case can be made for limiting this perk to a smaller amount, say £100,000, many people have made prudent financial plans, such as paying off a mortgage, on the basis that it will continue to be available.
There are similar flaws with other potential changes to the tax treatment of pensions. A flat rate of relief on contributions sounds superficially compelling, and could be dressed up as an enhancement to basic rate taxpayers if it were pitched at the right level, but it would have a far-reaching impact on many middle-ranking public sector workers.
Increasing National Insurance on employer contributions would also not be as victimless as it sounds. The cost would inevitably be passed on to employees.
Budgets often turn out to be less consequential than the speculation in the run up to the statement would suggest. There’s a good reason for that. Many chancellors before Rachel Reeves have road-tested tax changes before, at the last minute, filing them in the “too difficult” tray. Maybe we’ll be spared again, but I’m less confident than usual. In which case, the Chancellor may be on the lookout for a friendly pet.
Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. The views are his own