How Strong Is the Eric Adams Case? A Former SDNY Prosecutor’s Take

There’s been smoke swirling around New York City mayor Eric Adams for months, and now he’s in the fire. We’ve never seen anything quite like this: a criminal charge against the former police captain and current mayor of the world’s most important city, brought by the Feds just a few blocks away, about to play out in a courtroom with unimaginably high stakes for the city itself and for the man at the center of it all.

Let’s dig into what we know, and what we don’t.

The charges: The indictment, which runs 57 pages, charges Adams with federal crimes including conspiracy, wire fraud, solicitation of foreign campaign contributions, and bribery. In essence, prosecutors allege that stretching back to 2015, Adams asked for and received two types of improper benefits from powerful Turkish government officials and nationals: (1) free or heavily discounted luxury travel, which, at times, Adams failed to truthfully disclose, and (2) illegal foreign campaign contributions, funneled to the Adams campaign through bogus “straw donors.” In return, Adams allegedly used his official power as Brooklyn borough president and later as mayor to do an important favor for his Turkish benefactors. In 2021, as construction was completed on a skyscraper known as “Turkish House,” Turkish officials wanted to get the building inspected and approved for opening by late September 2021, in time for a visit from the Turkish president. Adams leaned on FDNY officials, who expedited (and at times shortcut) the safety-inspection process, to the satisfaction of his Turkish benefactors.

Even before the U.S. Attorney held a press conference to lay out the charges, Adams made two public statements, in which he and categorically denied any wrongdoing. He did not offer up any specific defense or counternarrative — but, of course, he is presumed innocent and doesn’t have to prove anything to anyone if (and when) this case goes to trial.

I know what you’re wondering: Just how strong is the prosecution’s case? The answer, I’m here to tell you, is … we don’t know yet (sorry). The indictment has its merits, to be sure. Reading between the lines, prosecutors apparently have flipped one or more campaign insiders who can detail the inner workings of the alleged scheme. It seems clear that Adams tried to cover up his receipt of more than $100,000 worth of free or discounted luxury travel. And the indictment quotes damaging text messages in which Adams appears to instruct his campaign staff to find a way to accept donations from Turkish nationals and leans on the FDNY to expedite the Turkish House inspection.

But bribery and corruption cases are notoriously difficult for prosecutors. Defendants often claim — as Adams surely will here — that if anything illegal was happening, he was in the dark about it, and that he was just doing his job by making sure that constituent needs were met. Sometimes you can read an indictment and say “Game over.” This isn’t one of those cases. That’s not to say the indictment is weak or problematic, but it’s no slam dunk.

The prosecutors: This is a federal case, charged by the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, where I used to work. (Contrary to what you may have seen on social media, this case has nothing to do with Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg or New York State attorney general Letitia James.) The U.S. Attorney, Damian Williams, is just 44 years old — which makes him the youngest SDNY U.S. Attorney in recent memory, possibly ever. He’s also the SDNY’s first Black U.S. Attorney — which could become relevant to the atmosphere as his office prosecutes New York City’s second-ever Black mayor.

Williams does not fit the traditional mold of the SDNY U.S. Attorney. He’s no fire-breathing self-promoter (paging Rudy Giuliani), and he’s not a natural draw for the media (like James Comey or Preet Bharara). He’s understated, independent, and meticulous. Williams started off his tenure with a low profile — not a criticism, necessarily — but has surged into the spotlight in the past year or so with front-page prosecutions of Sam Bankman-Fried, Senator Robert Menendez, Sean “Diddy” Combs, and now the sitting mayor.

Williams’s name will appear on the court filings, and he’ll be the public face of the prosecution, but he won’t actually argue the case in court. That will fall to a team of assistant U.S. Attorneys, likely from the Public Corruption Unit. That group has a recent history of taking down powerful New York political leaders, including Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Republican State Senate Leader Dean Skelos. The SDNY has a long, proud history and fancies itself the best of the best (I’ll plead guilty to fully buying into our own hype), but it’s not infallible either; both Silver and Skelos had to be retried (and were re-convicted) after the U.S. Supreme Court in 2016 issued a decision in another case that gutted their original convictions.

The defense team: It’s standard practice in these pieces to quote former colleagues of the featured attorney vouching for his integrity and raving about his dazzling courtroom skills. Well, get ready for some standard fare from me about Adams’s defense lawyers, Boyd Johnson and Brendan McGuire. Let’s put it this way: As a prosecutor, I was intimidated by nobody on the defense side — but these two are damn impressive, and I’d be nervous stepping into the courtroom against them. Johnson was the deputy U.S. Attorney, the second-highest-ranking person in the office, and McGuire was chief of the (checking notes) … Public Corruption Unit. The SDNY is famously elite (just ask us), but these two were among the absolute best to pass through the place during my eight-plus years there. They both know how to build a case as a prosecutor — and, accordingly, how to disassemble one from the defense side.

Adams’s defense team also includes Alex Spiro, a leading defense lawyer to the rich and powerful. Spiro recently won a dismissal of the criminal case against Alec Baldwin, and his client roster (in civil and criminal cases) ranges from Jay-Z to Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots. This isn’t going to be a walkover for prosecutors by any means.

What happens next: Adams will appear in federal court, likely within the next few business days. To illustrate how small a world it is down there: When I used to walk from the World Trade Center site to the SDNY, I’d stroll right past the mayor’s office, which stands less than a quarter-mile from the courthouse. It’ll be a surreal scene when Adams — still the sitting mayor of the city — makes his first appearance in court and sits at the defendant’s table.

At his arraignment, Adams will be advised of the charges against him, and he’ll certainly enter a “not guilty” plea. Unlike Sean Combs, who recently was detained without bail, Adams is virtually certain to be released on bail, or possibly on no conditions whatsoever. From there, the case will pass through the unglamorous but all-important pretrial stages: discovery (the process by which prosecutors must produce their evidence to the defense) and motions (including, surely, challenges by Adams to various searches of his properties and to the indictment itself).

The vast majority of federal cases — more than 95 percent, in recent years — result in guilty pleas, so, statistically, that’s always the likeliest outcome. That said, I’d peg the probability of a plea here far lower than that, perhaps below 50-50. Adams is famously self-assured, shall we say, and he’s come out swinging, claiming defiantly that, in this case, “I always knew that if I stood my ground for New Yorkers that I would be a target — and a target I became.” It’s unclear who exactly Adams believes is targeting him, or why. But he vowed to “fight this with every ounce of my strength and spirit.” Doesn’t sound like he’s angling for a plea, though things certainly can change quickly.

If this case does go to trial, it likely won’t happen soon. Typically, a case of this seriousness and complexity would take at least a year, and likely more than that, to get to trial. That said, if Adams remains in office as mayor, the case will take on more urgency and may move more quickly toward a resolution.

The Feds, and especially the SDNY, are used to steamrolling their charged defendants. Usually, the charges are too powerful, the evidence is too overwhelming, and the resources available to the government too vast. But this one is going to be a pitched battle, and it’s a mistake to predict any particular outcome. Adams could beat the case and remain mayor, or he could wind up in a prison cell. All we know for sure is he’s not going down without a fight.