Your guide to the debate that will shape the US election

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. As we wait for tonight’s presidential debate, let’s get into:

• Our expectations for the Trump-Harris match-up

• The $1bn crusade to “crush” liberal America

• How the candidates’ economic proposals will hit the US budget

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump prepare to meet for the first time, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

In June, we saw just how consequential a debate can be when Joe Biden’s catastrophic performance ultimately led him to exit the race. Tonight’s event is, so far, the only officially scheduled debate between Harris and Trump — and it could shape the rest of the campaign.

Harris’s momentum seems to be stalling — if not slipping — so she’s under immense pressure to deliver a strong performance. She’s leading Trump by 2.2 percentage points nationally, according to the FT’s polling average, but that’s down from 3.6 points at the end of last week.

It’s a crucial night for Trump, too. After Harris’s ascendant summer, the former president wants to wrestle back some momentum of his own.

He managed to stay focused and coherent in the debate against Biden, but there is always the risk his tendency to ramble or launch personal attacks, could backfire.

Here are five things we’ll be watching for tonight [free to read]:

1. Who looks more presidential?

Harris will be standing firmly in the spotlight since Trump is better known to voters, and this is the first time she will defend herself and her policies from the former president’s attacks directly.

2. Can Trump hone his offence?

Trump has struggled to mount a successful attack strategy against Harris, who has run a campaign light on policy. The biggest flashpoint will be whether Harris defines herself on her own terms or if Trump owns the narrative.

3. Will Harris prosecute Trump?

Harris has made her experience as a prosecutor a central part of her political identity — and she likes to remind voters that Trump is a felon.

4. Who will win on the economy?

The candidates will lay out their competing economic visions, particularly on how to bring down the country’s high cost of living.

5. Will the candidates capitalise on their strongest issues?

Abortion is the Democrats’ strongest issue, while for the Republicans it is immigration, and both candidates will be aiming to land strong punches here.

You can catch the debate at 9pm Eastern time. And on September 12, join FT journalists as they break down the outcome in an exclusive subscriber webinar. Register here.

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Behind the scenes

Meet Leonard Leo, the conservative activist best known for leading the effort to secure a conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court.

His next project? A $1bn crusade to “crush liberal dominance” within corporate America, and in the US media and entertainment industries.

Leo told the FT’s Alex Rogers:

We need to crush liberal dominance where it’s most insidious, so we’ll direct resources to build talent and capital formation pipelines in the areas of news and entertainment, where leftwing extremism is most evident.

Expect us to increase support for organisations that call out companies and financial institutions that bend to the woke mind virus spread by regulators and NGOs, so that they have to pay a price for putting extreme leftwing ideology ahead of consumers.

After taking a step back from his duties at the Federalist Society, he founded Marble Freedom Trust in 2021 with $1.6bn from electronic device manufacturing mogul Barre Seid to rival the left’s “dark money”.

Leo told Alex how Seid initially rejected his pitch in 2019 at The Langham hotel in Chicago, joking that the businessman seemed more interested in the oysters at hand. But in 2020 — before Seid sold his business to an Irish conglomerate — Seid reportedly decided to donate his company’s shares to a non-profit organisation helmed by Leo.

Over the next three years, Leo claimed victories that fulfilled Seid’s dream of pursuing “edgy” strategies, attacking “woke” capitalism, education and the media, while continuing to promote conservative judges.

Datapoint

Both Harris’s and Trump’s economic proposals would increase the US deficit, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania. 

Harris’s plan would add $1.2tn to the deficit over 10 years, while Trump’s would add $5.8tn.

The vice-president’s policies that are factored into the estimates include:

• Raising the corporate tax rate to 28 per cent

• Down payment support for some first-time homebuyers

• Expanding the child tax credit

• Expanding the earned income tax credit, which gives a tax break to some low-to-moderate income earners

• Permanently extending a tax credit that helps some cover health insurance premiums

And the projection for Trump’s plans includes:

• Lowering the corporate tax rate to 15 per cent

• Extending cuts to income tax and business tax provisions that he enacted during his first term

• Eliminating taxes on social security benefits

“Deficits are large and they are likely to stay that way in coming years no matter the election outcome,” said Citigroup’s chief economist Andrew Hollenhorst.

However, exactly what happens to the budget will depend on whether the new president’s party also controls Congress, which gets the final word on big fiscal changes such as taxes.

“How [Harris] governs is not determined by what she’s saying, it’s determined by what tools she does or doesn’t have,” said Stephen Myrow, managing partner of Beacon Policy Advisors in Washington.

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