The international world order is under threat in a way not seen since the Cold War, the heads of MI6 and the CIA have warned.
In the first joint op-ed penned by the leaders of the British and American intelligence services in their shared 77-year history, the MI6 chief Sir Richard Moore and CIA director William Burns warned that both countries now “face an unprecedented array of threats”.
Writing in the Financial Times, the intelligence leaders reflected on their decades of cooperation over the course of two world wars and in their fight against terrorism, warning: “The challenges of the past are being accelerated in the present, and compounded by technological change.”
“There is no question that the international world order – the balanced system that has led to relative peace and stability and delivered rising living standards, opportunities and prosperity – is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the cold war,” they wrote.
For both agencies, “the rise of China is the principal intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the 21st century, and we have reorganised our services to reflect that priority”, they said.
And they warned that staying the course in resisting Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine “is more vital than ever”, saying that Russia “will not succeed in extinguishing Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence”.
The spymasters criticised the “reckless campaign of sabotage across Europe being waged by Russian intelligence, and its cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us”.
“In the 21st century, crises don’t come sequentially,” they wrote. “While significant attention and resources are being deployed against Russia, we are acting together in other places and spaces to counter the risk of global instability.”
Speaking on Saturday in London at an unprecedented joint appearance alongside Sir Richard, Mr Burns warned of the growing and “troubling” defence relationship between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
Following reports by CNN and the Wall Street Journal that Tehran had defied G7 threats of further sanctions by supplying Moscow with hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles, Mr Burns warned that such a move would mark a “dramatic escalation” of the relationship between Iran and Russia.
North Korea has sent ammunition and missiles to Russia to use against Ukraine, while Iran supplies Moscow with attack drones. Mr Burns said the CIA had yet to see evidence of China sending weapons to Russia, “but we see a lot of things short of that”.
With Ukraine currently urging Western allies to allow Kyiv to use their weapons to strike targets within Russia, Mr Burns said the West should be “mindful” of the escalation risk but not be “unnecessarily intimidated” by Russian sabre-rattling.
Disclosing that he had been sent by the US president Joe Biden to meet one of his Russian counterparts earlier in the conflict in order to warn him of the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons, he said: “There was a moment in the fall of 2022 when I think there was a genuine risk of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons.
“We’ve continued to be very direct about that. So I don’t think we can afford to be intimidated by that sabre-rattling or bullying.”
Sir Richard added: “I think Russian intelligence services has gone a bit feral, frankly, in some of their behaviour. The fact that they are using criminal elements shows you that they’re becoming a bit desperate … it’s become a bit more amateurish.”
He added: “Amateurish can actually be more reckless and more dangerous as well.”
The spymasters insisted that their agencies have “exploited our intelligence channels to push hard for restraint and de-escalation” in the Middle East.
They wrote: “Our services are working ceaselessly to achieve a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, which could end the suffering and appalling loss of life of Palestinian civilians and bring home the hostages after 11 months of hellish confinement by Hamas.”
Mr Burns, who is also the chief US negotiator in talks between Israel and Hamas, told the FT Weekend Festival that a more detailed ceasefire proposal would be made in the next several days.
After 11 months of conflict in Gaza sparked by Hamas’s cross-border attack on Israel on 7 October, Mr Burns said he was working very hard on “texts and creative formulas” with mediators Qatar and Egypt to secure a ceasefire.
While 90 per cent of the paragraphs have been agreed, the last 10 per cent are always the hardest, Mr Burns said, adding that it was a question of political will and that he hoped leaders on both sides recognised “the time has come finally to make some hard choices and some difficult compromises”.
Additional reporting by agencies