But Ukraine most certainly has scared the Russian population. This is a very smart tactic by the Ukrainians, who increasingly overcome their disadvantages in manpower and conventional munitions by exploiting gaps in Russian defences.
Today’s drone operations resulted in all three of Moscow’s major airports shutting down, causing widespread travel disruption. Wealthy Muscovites far removed from the carnage and brutality of the Donbas woke up this morning to a real bombardment, and the terrifying noises and experiences of air defences shooting down drones over their leafy capital.
It was either by design or delicious coincidence that Moscow was under attack as Putin was returning from his visit to Chechnya, demonstrating further the incapability of the Russian intelligence services and again further eroding Putin’s position in the eyes of his people.
The level of psychological damage done to Muscovites, who largely view Putin’s war in Ukraine as removed from their day-to-day business, has now been reinforced. After the attack last year, they were assured that it wouldn’t happen again and Putin said he knew what needed to be done to strengthen Moscow’s defences. Now it has happened again and Putin is exposed as incompetent.
This matters, as so far Putin has been at pains to spare the residents of the main Russian cities – Moscow and St Petersburg – from the horrors of the war in order to maintain their support. With these strikes, Ukraine lets the Russian middle classes and oligarchy know that they cannot sit the war out as spectators.
Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes – on land and now in the air – demonstrate a remarkable performance by Ukrainian military intelligence, and an ability to reach past what has often been viewed as a largely stagnant and transparent battlespace. It had been thought that modern battlefield sensors and satellites left little room for surprise. The Ukrainians are increasingly discrediting that viewpoint, and deserve much credit for this.
Addressing Chechnyan troops destined for the meat-grinder front line in the Donbas, Putin declared yesterday that Russian forces (and their Chechen mercenaries) are ‘absolutely, absolutely invincible’.
Putin should know by now, however, that in war there are no absolutes. And in the war that Ukraine is now waging against the Russian aggressors, even pampered Muscovites are beginning to wake up this reality.