- Prior was +3.0% y/y
- m/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Month-over-month unrounded +0.1549%
Core measures:
- Core CPI +3.2 vs +3.2% expected
- Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Core unrounded +0.166%
- Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs +0.3% prior
- Supercore m/m +0.205% vs +0.054% prior
- Supercore y/y +4.468% vs +4.651% prior
Key Details:
- Shelter index rose 0.4%, accounting for nearly 90% of the monthly increase
- Shelter +0.4% m/m vs +0.2% prior
- Rent +0.5% vs +0.3% prior
- Owners’ equivalent rent +0.4% vs +0.3% prior
- Lodging away from home +0.2% vs -2.0% prior
- Energy index unchanged after two months of declines
- Food index up 0.2%, matching June’s increase
- Used cars and trucks index fell 2.3%
- Airline fares down 1.6% vs -5.0% prior
- Motor vehicle insurance +1.2% vs +0.9% m/m prior
Fed pricing is 103 bps priced in versus 106 bps before the data. That’s a slightly hawkish reaction and suggests that markets were priced for more of downside surprise. That said, the unrounded numbers show better than the headlines.
There was some front-running of this report after PPI yesterday so I’m not surprised to see some US dollar strength and bond weakness on the headlines but it’s all mild.
I do think these numbers are better than expected as there is some help on the shelter front in the pipeline.