The Russian military was instructed to target a number of cities worldwide, including those in its allies China and Iran, with nuclear-capable missiles should a major war break out, according to secret files reportedly seen by the Financial Times (FT).
The FT noted that the 29 secret files, shown to FT by unnamed Western sources and dated between 2008 and 2014, included a presentation that contained maps of targets for the Russian navy “made for presentational purposes rather than operational use.”
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The list of targets extended far beyond the frontier that separates NATO and Russia and well into the rest of Europe, including naval facilities in Norway and industrial sites in the UK.
It also included targets in Asia, including sites inside China, North Korea, Iran, and Azerbaijan – all allies of Moscow.
The targets were intended to be struck with Russian seaborne missiles capable of carrying either conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons, with Russian officers “[highlighting] the advantages of using nuclear strikes at an early stage,” the FT reported.
The use of tactical nuclear weapons would ideally be accompanied by conventional strikes, according to the presentation.
Some of the 29 files also included scenarios of a hypothetical invasion by China into Russia, with tactical nuclear strikes listed as an option to deter Chinese troop advances, as detailed in another FT report.
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The files also indicated that Russia retained the capability to carry nuclear weapons on surface ships, including “anti-submarine missiles with nuclear warheads placed on surface ships and submarines” and “ship and shore-based anti-aircraft guided missiles with nuclear warheads to defeat enemy air defense groups.”
The act contradicts an agreement with Washington in 1991 with experts claiming that it contains great risks associated with potential storm damage and enemy hits, the FT says.
Analysts who reviewed the files told the FT that they were consistent with NATO’s assessment of Russian naval capabilities. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson rejected the authenticity of the files.
Moscow’s threshold for nuclear strikes
An earlier FT report, citing the same files, outlined Moscow’s alleged threshold for a nuclear strike, to which the FT said was lower than Russia publicly admitted.
The conditions included the destruction of 20 percent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines, 30 percent of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centers.
It also listed an enemy landing on Russian territories, the defeat of units responsible for securing border areas, or an imminent enemy attack using conventional weapons as potential conditions for Russia to launch a nuclear strike.
Kyiv Post cannot independently verify the authenticity of the files and the conditions listed. Even if true, it’s also not clear if the conditions listed continue to be applicable after 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine.
First use policy
Officially, Russia is one of the nuclear powers that do not adhere to the “no first use” policy, a commitment among some nuclear powers not to use the weapons unless first attacked by an adversary using them.
The presentation, cited by the FT, also reportedly described a form of so-called demonstration strike, which called for the detonation of nuclear weapons in remote areas “in a period of immediate threat of aggression” as a form of deterrence.
The FT said Russia “has never acknowledged such strikes are in its doctrine” – though Moscow’s official doctrines lacked the specifics, Russia’s 2020 Presidential Executive Order on Nuclear Deterrence in Article 4 did state the following, which could be interpreted as a lack of “no first use” policies:
“… deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies. In the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” it reads.
However, Putin said in December 2022 that Russia would not be the first to launch nuclear weapons, which contradicts the country’s current nuclear doctrine.