Iran has suggested it could delay its retaliation against Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, but has hinted too at limited control over its regional proxies.
Haniyeh was killed at an Iranian government guest house on 31 July in a bomb attack believed to have been carried out by Israel.
Military retaliation by Iran and its regional proxies has been expected ever since.
However, a statement released to Sky News late on Friday by the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York, appeared to link the timing of a response to the Gaza ceasefire talks.
The statement said: “Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza; any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognised by us. The Israeli regime has violated our national security and sovereignty through its recent act of terrorism.”
It continued: “We have the legitimate right to self-defence – a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire. However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
The statement also made a rare acknowledgement of diplomatic channels between Iran and the United States.
“Direct and intermediary official channels to exchange messages have always existed between Iran and the United States, the details of which both parties prefer to remain untold,” it added.
The subtext of the statement appeared to confirm that a retaliation would come at some point, but that any response before a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel could jeopardise a deal.
It suggested too that Iranian control or influence over its regional proxies, Lebanese Hezbollah principally, is limited.
Hours before the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, an Israeli airstrike killed a top Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut.
Ismail Haniyeh. Pic: AP
The wording, “We hope our response…” is a reflection of proxies under an Iranian umbrella but capable and willing to operate independently.
All this chimes with a growing diplomatic assessment that Hezbollah, not Iran, is the wild card in terms of if, how and when a response comes.
Splits also exist within Iran.
According to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deputy commander, Iran is ready to carry out an order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “punish” Israel over the assassination.
“The supreme leader’s orders regarding the harsh punishment of Israel and revenge for the blood of martyr Ismail Haniyeh are clear and explicit… and they will be implemented in the best possible way,” Ali Fadavi said, according to Iranian media.
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Ali Khamenei led a prayer over the coffins of Haniyeh and his bodyguard. Pic: AP
This came hours after separate reports suggested Iran’s new and relatively moderate president was at odds with the harder line IRGC over an appropriate response.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly favours targeting secret Israeli bases in neighbouring countries over direct strikes on Israel.
Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the killing of Haniyeh, which has fuelled further concern that the war between Israel and Hamas would morph into a wider regional war.
The Gaza ceasefire talks remain deadlocked.
Israel has agreed to a request by the US, Egypt and Qatar to meet in Doha or Cairo to finalise negotiations and a Hamas official told Reuters the group was “studying” the new offer for talks.