US ISM Services PMI
Prior 48.8
- Business activity index 54.5 versus 49.6 prior
- Employment 51.1 versus 46.1 prior
- New orders 52.4 versus 47.3 prior
- Prices paid 57.0 versus 56.3 prior
- Supplier deliveries 47.6 versus 52.2 prior
- Inventories 49.8 versus 42.9 prior
- Backlog of orders 50.6 versus 44.0 prior
- New export orders 58.5 versus 51.7 prior
- Imports 53.3 versus 44.0 prior
- Inventory sentiment 63.2 versus 64.1 prior
Key components showed broad improvement:
- Business activity surged back into expansion
- New orders recovered, signaling improved demand
- Employment expanded for only the second time in 2024
- Supplier deliveries sped up, with the index falling to 47.6
10 of 18 industries reported growth, led by arts/entertainment and accommodation/food services. Comments indicated steady but cautious business conditions, with some concerns about inflation and the upcoming election.
Last month, this index looked like it could be rolling over but it may have thrown another head-fake.
The Fed will likely view this as consistent with their “soft landing” narrative and continue to push back against aggressive pricing for rate cuts.