As we predicted, there has been a marked escalation in tension in the Middle East following Israel’s targeted assassinations of prominent members of Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase” as he addressed the funeral of military commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, Iran’s supreme leader prayed over the body of Hamas’ political leader, who was killed in a presumed Israeli assassination.
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Speculation continues over how exactly he was despatched, with world newspapers of the opinion that it was by remote detonation of an explosive device hidden in his guest quarters, whilst the IRGC – which was responsible for his security – claims it was a short-range projectile. They would say that wouldn’t they, as it gets them partially off the hook.
Be that as it may, it’s quite clear that we have moved closer to an all-out regional war. Arab sources apparently believe the response, whatever form it takes, will have to be more than the barrage of 300 drones and missiles used in April. Warnings have been passed to Iran on behalf of Israel and the USA that Israel is ready to go to war if Hezbollah and Iran respond too aggressively.
That being said, Israel is, by all accounts, preparing for a more complex and sudden onslaught than that of last April. Iranian officials warned Israel of their plans ahead of that attack, providing the US and Israel with time to prepare.
The US Department of Defense said on August 2 that it will “take steps” to support Israel’s defence and “mitigate the possibility of regional escalation.” It also reported that air—and sea-based cruise missile defences, ballistic missile defence-capable cruisers and destroyers, and a squadron of F-22s will shortly deploy to the Middle East.
Iran will most likely be taking into consideration US and allied support defending Israel as it considers how to cause greater damage this time. Previously the US, Israel, and allied countries in the region collectively intercepted approximately 99% of all munitions launched by Iran.
It is possible that Iranian-backed militia attacks targeting US bases in Syria could pull resources away from engaging and intercepting munitions bound for Israel. If the US had to focus on defending US ground positions in the region, it could well reduce the assets available to defend Israel.
Thus Tehran might think that a coordinated offensive targeting US forces in combination with a large-scale drone and missile attack conducted by the Axis of Resistance could be significantly more effective. But to do so would require careful timing and interplay which might be beyond their current capabilities.
Meanwhile American citizens have been urged to leave Lebanon on “any ticket available” as fears grow of the conflict spreading, adding that those who chose to stay should prepare contingency plans and be ready to seek shelter for extended periods of time. Similar warnings have been issued by the UK, Swedish, French, Canadian, and Jordanian governments.
Specifically, Britain advises against all travel to Lebanon and that British nationals still in the country should leave now while commercial options remain available. Additional Foreign Office personnel have been sent to the region – including Lebanon – to provide additional support as part of the UK government’s preparatory planning for a range of possible conflict scenarios.
Does this mean that we are heading inexorably towards an expanded regional war? No, it doesn’t, not yet anyway, and everyone hopes that wiser heads will prevail and an element of calm might return to the Middle East.
But it’s sensible to prepare for the worst while still hoping for the best, and that’s what many Western governments are now doing. Far better “jaw-jaw” than “war-war”, as history warns us.
The next few days will be crucial in deciding how the pendulum swings.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk