Beirut, Lebanon – The assassinations of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon this week could help Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regain domestic support as he fights for his political survival, say analysts, even though they may jeopardise hopes for the release of Israeli captives.
“The assassination of Haniyeh is great for Netanyahu’s political and security credentials,” Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera. “That is undoubtedly a political fact.”
Israel has been wracked by internal unrest and divisions, first with months of protests over controversial judicial reforms that Netanyahu’s government pushed through, then with a growing movement critical of the prime minister’s failure to secure a ceasefire deal with Hamas that could lead to the release of captives.
This week, far-right Israelis – including ministers and members of the Knesset – reacted angrily to the arrest of soldiers accused of torturing and raping Palestinian prisoners. A mob stormed the base where the soldiers were being held. Divisions between Israel’s political and security officials have also increasingly become public.
Yet, the spate of assassinations this week could help Netanyahu shift the narrative – at least temporarily – within Israel, said the analysts.
On July 30, Israel fired a missile that killed Shukr in his apartment building in Dahiya, a bustling residential neighbourhood in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut. Shukr was one of the top commanders of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and was reportedly instrumental in plotting military strategy.
Israel ostensibly carried out the assassination in response to a projectile killing 12 Druze children and young people in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27. Israel blames Hezbollah for the attack, but the group denies responsibility.
Hours after Shukr’s death, Israel assassinated Haniyeh, who according to analysts was playing a key role in ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. Haniyeh was killed while visiting Iran’s capital Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack, yet Iran and Hamas both blame it.
And on Thursday, a day after Haniyeh was killed, Israel claimed it had evidence that it had also killed top Hamas operative Mohammed Deif in a strike on Gaza on July 13. Deif was one of the main founders of Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, and has been on Israel’s most wanted list for years.
“I think in Israeli society, there is this moment where they can say that despite all the naysayers and concern [about the Gaza war], that they managed now to strike Hamas and are now making real progress by also taking out Hezbollah people,” said Lovatt.
Common ground
Over the course of Israel’s devastating war on Gaza, friction has emerged between Israel’s political and security elites.
The former has pledged to “dismantle” Hamas, while the latter has acknowledged that such a mission is impossible and is instead calling for a negotiated solution that retrieves Israeli captives and preserves Israeli security.
Israel has killed nearly 40,000 people in Gaza – mostly civilians – and uprooted almost the entire 2.3 million population in the enclave. The war has also caused a famine and a polio epidemic.
The war began in response to a Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, during which 1,139 people were killed and about 250 people were taken captive.
Israelis blamed Netanyahu, as well as Israeli security and intelligence apparatuses for failing to prevent the attack. But now, Israel’s military and political establishment appear to have partially redeemed themselves with the recent assassinations, according to Ori Goldberg, a local expert on Israeli politics.
But he said that while many Israelis view the political killings as a “victory” against their enemies, they are concerned – even “resigned” – about a retaliatory attack by Iran and allied armed groups.
“It’s like Israelis have schizophrenia,” Goldberg said. “We are rocking the regional reality to its core and ignoring all warnings, and we appear extremely radical [in our moves]. On the other hand, [Israelis] are saying that these [assassinations] need to happen.”
Oren Ziv, an Israeli journalist and political commentator, agrees the security forces have restored their reputation domestically by assassinating Haniyeh.
“In light of October 7 and the failure of the army and security services, Israeli security wanted to show they have recovered, and I think they did prove that. The assassinations serve Netanyahu from one angle and it serves the security establishment from another,” Ziv told Al Jazeera.
‘Sacrificing the captives’
On July 25, United States vice president and presumptive Democratic Party presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, said “she will not be silent” on the suffering in Gaza and called on all sides to pursue and sign a ceasefire deal, which would finally end the war and lead to the release of Israeli and Palestinian captives.
The speech came a day after Netanyahu gave a speech in Congress, where he called for more help to “finish the job” in Gaza.
While Netanyahu’s popularity has been at an all-time low since October 7, polls showed that his Congress speech won him back some domestic support.
That is a worrying development for critics and experts who accuse Netanyahu of intentionally delaying and even sabotaging a ceasefire deal out of fear that it could collapse his far-right government and trigger early elections. Netanyahu, in their view, is stalling until he can regain enough popularity to win another national vote.
Lovatt suspects that Netanyahu’s political survival was part of his calculus for killing Haniyeh, the main Hamas interlocutor in ceasefire talks.
“Was an additional factor – in Netanyahu’s mind – that killing Haniyeh would then kill ceasefire talks and thereby prolong the conflict and with it Netanyahu’s political life? It is an extremely cynical calculation, but one that we can’t disregard because that has been [Netanyahu’s] behaviour to date,” he told Al Jazeera.
“I say it is cynical because that means [Netanyahu] is punishing Israeli hostages, at least from an Israeli viewpoint.”
Many Israelis, especially those calling for a “hostage deal,” may soon change their tune about the assassination of Haniyeh once they realise it makes a ceasefire agreement more difficult to reach, added Ziv.
“Israelis – including families of the hostages – are basically not against these assassinations morally, but may soon fear that it risks the safety of the hostages,” he told Al Jazeera. “I would say the vast majority support the [assassinations], but some are concerned about the timing.”