One of the biggest difficulties for Bailey and his colleagues is that it takes time for interest rates to feed through the economy and affect the rate of inflation. This lag is often thought to be around two years.
It means they have to act through this year’s fog of uncertainty.
Price rises are set to pick up again to an estimated 2.75pc later this year – something which rates set today will not affect.
The minority of four MPC members, who voted to hold rates at 5.25pc, are worried that this, combined with high pay growth, is a sign inflation is not yet completely under control.
As a result, they want to keep rates high as they await more proof that it is time to cut.
“Underlying domestic inflationary pressures appeared more entrenched” to those four, the minutes say, with fears of “more enduring structural shifts”.
“They preferred to maintain the current level of bank rate [at 5.25pc] until there was stronger evidence that these upside pressures would not materialise,” the minutes add.
But the remaining five think they might be wrong. They voted to cut rates as “there has been some progress in moderating risks of persistence in inflation”.
The Bank’s forecasts indicate that if interest rates are held at 5pc for several years to come, the economy will grind almost to a halt over the next year, unemployment will surge close to 6pc by 2027 and inflation will plunge to 1pc, just half the 1pc target.
However, if rates are cut as financial markets expect, dropping to 3.75pc by the end of 2026, the economy is forecast to fare better, unemployment will stay below 5pc and inflation will fall only to 1.8pc.
If anything, even this projection of inflation at a touch below the 2pc target suggests rates should be cut a little further than 3.75pc.