Even before Venezuelans went to the polls on Sunday, it was entirely predictable that Nicolás Maduro would declare victory and that the opposition would call the election a sham, as before. So it came to pass. With most of the vote counted, the government-controlled electoral authority said that the incumbent president had taken 51% of votes while his rival, the former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, had won 44%. The opposition say that they have voting tallies proving otherwise, and that Mr González is president-elect: “The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened,” he said.
Two things have changed. The first is that there has been a widespread rejection of Mr Maduro’s disastrous reign, even in impoverished areas that were previously strongholds of the Chavismo movement he inherited. Their residents have had enough of the economic and humanitarian catastrophe that has left an estimated 19 million people without adequate healthcare and nutrition, and no longer buy his explanation that it’s all the fault of others. US sanctions have exacerbated the crisis, but his government is corrupt and incompetent as well as brutal. Mr Maduro may blame the extreme right for the protests and clashes now seen on the streets, but he knows that he’s lost supporters on whom he once counted.
The second striking shift is that while Russia, Cuba, China and other old friends were quick to congratulate Mr Maduro, several leftist governments in the region have struck a different note. Though Brazil has been cautious in public remarks, it is reportedly negotiating a joint statement with Mexico and Colombia, demanding detailed voting records from each area. The gulf between polls during the race and the declared result is too implausibly vast to ignore.
Many voters appeared motivated less by an enthusiastic embrace of the opposition than an uncompromising rejection of Mr Maduro. The driving force in the opposition bloc, María Corina Machado – who backed Mr González after she was banned from running – calls herself a centrist liberal, but is a conservative who has backed privatisation of state-owned companies, promised to “bury socialism forever” and supported foreign intervention to overthrow Mr Maduro.
She called the landslide that she claims her side won “irreversible”. Yet mass protests and international sympathy were not enough to bring the opposition to victory in the past. Juan Guaidó declared himself president in 2019, and was swiftly recognised by the US and around 50 other countries – but failed to unseat Mr Maduro, despite the efforts of the Trump administration. Many in Latin America have good reason to be cautious about foreign intervention.
Almost 8 million Venezuelans have voted with their feet since Mr Maduro was narrowly elected in 2013, and one poll suggested that as many as a third of Venezuelans might consider leaving if he remained in power. That is worrying others in the region and the US, facing its own election. But it is the interests and rights of Venezuelans that must be the priority. Mr Maduro warned of “a bloodbath … a fratricidal civil war” if his party did not triumph. For now at least, he appears to have locked in the support of security forces. His human rights record is grim. The fear is that he will double down on his authoritarian repression. More sympathetic nations, as well as the old foes he despises, should do their utmost to ensure he respects the people.