NASA has captured a dark plasma eruption on the sun that has a 60 percent chance of causing blackouts on Earth this week.
The approximately 36,000 degrees-Fahrenheit (F) ‘cold’ solar flare is approximately one quarter of the temperature of the sun’s ‘warm’ solar flares, which average 144,000 degrees-F and are much better understood by scientists.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an alert Monday warning that this dark plasma pulse could lead to ‘power grid fluctuations.’
The flare has the potential to disrupt radios, aviation communication and satellite operations when it makes impact by at least Friday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an alert Monday warning that the dark plasma pulse from this ‘cold solar flare’ could lead to ‘power grid fluctuations.’ Above an Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) composite image of the sun from Monday, July 22
NASA’s video from its Solar Dynamics Observatory showed a dark cloud of the cold solar flare bursting from the sun, creating what looks like black smoke as this cooler-than-average plasma shot northward up the surface of the sun.
So-called ‘cold’ solar flares — which have only been the subject of serious study by astrophysicists in the past decade — appear to be no less high in microwave radiation than a ‘warm’ solar flare.
These lower temperature solar flares, according to one 2023 study, found that the flares produce ‘higher peak frequencies of gyrosynchrotron emission,’ the exact form of radiation responsible for a flare’s intense and disruptive radio emissions.
NOAA has advised that there‘s a 60 percent chance of more medium-level or M-class solar flares within the next 24 hours — and a 15 percent chance of a more extreme X-class flare, which could trigger radio blackouts all around the world.
But this recent, ‘cold’ M-class solar flare erupted from the sunspot region named AR3757 late Sunday.
Specifically, the flare was an M1-class which is on the low end of the ten-point scale within this medium M range.
Solar flares are divided into four lettered categories by their severity: X-class flares are the most intense, followed by M, C, and the weakest, B.
Only X and M flares radiate energy powerful enough to affect Earth, where their electromagnetic pulses can cause communications and electrical disruptions.
In the past 24 hours, at least six M-class solar flares have caused radio disruptions internationally, including one M1 flare that caused radio blackouts in parts of the Western Hemisphere, and three in Asia.
The largest of these was an M3.2-class flare that led to a radio blackout in the Pacific late Sunday, according to University of Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center.
Experts have warned that Earth is set to weather increasingly more severe solar storms over the next year.
NOAA also advised that there’s a 60-percent chance of more medium-level or M-class solar flares within the next 24 hours – and a 15-percent chance of a more extreme X-class flare, which could trigger radio blackouts around the world. Above a July 22 AIA image of the sun
Smithsonian astrophysicist Dr Jonathan McDowell told DailyMail.com in May that the sun has not yet reached its ‘solar maximum,’ the most energetic point of its recurring, 11-year solar cycle, in which greater turbulence raises its energy output.
That ‘maximum’ will finally come in the heat of the summer next year: July 2025.
‘We could easily get much bigger storms over the next year or two,’ Dr McDowell, who works with the Smithsonian and Harvard’s Center for Astrophysics explained.
‘It’s definitely a scary time for satellite operators,’ he added.
‘This is the time when you get the most sunspots, and they start getting larger,’ Dean Pesnell, project Scientist at NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, agreed.
But, ‘as AR3738 rotates out of view, the sun may settle down quite a bit,’ for a couple days to a week, Pesnell told DailyMail.com earlier this July.
At 2019’s ‘solar minimum,’ the number of visible sunspots on the sun’s surface was effectively zero, but at the coming maximum in July 2025, the US National Space Weather Prediction Center has estimated that there could be up to 115 sunspots.
These magnetically dense areas of turbulence on the solar surface produce solar flares and more powerful ‘coronal mass ejection’ (CME) eruptions of plasma.
While the 11-year solar cycle only raises the total radiation coming out of the sun a deceptively small 0.1 percent, that excess is very concentrated in sunspot activity.
Last May, these increases to the 173,000 terawatts (trillions of watts) of solar energy that continuously hit Earth disrupted farmers ‘global positioning system’ (GPS) satellites and stalled planting equipment across the US Midwest.
‘I’ve never dealt with anything like this,’ Patrick O’Connor, who owns a farm roughly a 90-minute drive south Minneapolis, told the New York Times.
Right now the only predictive method space weather experts have for forecasting when a major solar storm is likely to strike is following the path of sunspots.
‘If you watch the sunspot going around the sun, what we call an “active area,”‘ Dr McDowell said in May, ‘”Oh, I’m seeing that sunspot, and it’s going to be facing the Earth in two days.” So, if it happens to burp, then then we could be in trouble.’
‘So, there’s a certain level of forecasting possible,’ he added. ‘We’re working on improving that.’
WHAT IS THE SOLAR CYCLE?
The Sun is a huge ball of electrically-charged hot gas that moves, generating a powerful magnetic field.
This magnetic field goes through a cycle, called the solar cycle.
Every 11 years or so, the Sun’s magnetic field completely flips, meaning the sun’s north and south poles switch places.
The solar cycle affects activity on the surface of the Sun, such as sunspots which are caused by the Sun’s magnetic fields.
Every 11 years the Sun’s magnetic field flips, meaning the Sun’s north and south poles switch places. The solar cycle affects activity on the surface of the Sun, increasing the number of sunspots during stronger (2001) phases than weaker (1996/2006) ones
One way to track the solar cycle is by counting the number of sunspots.
The beginning of a solar cycle is a solar minimum, or when the Sun has the least sunspots. Over time, solar activity – and the number of sunspots – increases.
The middle of the solar cycle is the solar maximum, or when the Sun has the most sunspots.
As the cycle ends, it fades back to the solar minimum and then a new cycle begins.
Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle.
These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space that can have effects on Earth.
For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications and electricity grids on Earth.