Locks
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun @ NY Liberty -1.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video
This will be the third meeting between these teams on the year, and both previous games have had eerily similar starts. Both saw the Liberty take a 10-point lead after a quarter, which is nothing new for the team that always seems to dominate the opening frame. Then the Sun came back in the second quarter to make the halftime scores tied and down by a point.
So that illustrates how to approach this Liberty team in the derivative markets, and I’m backing them in the first quarter again here. The full-game spread is short because the Sun have kept it close in both meetings, so that keeps the first quarter number short enough where I’m jumping in.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/Las Vegas Aces Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
These teams went for 178 points in their first meeting a few weeks ago, a game that had a closing total of 173.5, so I’m a little surprised to see this total come out much lower. I think these teams are capable of replicating that kind of production tonight, with neither of them being particularly strong defensively.
And with this being the final game for both teams before a month off for the Olympics, my suspicion is that defensive effort might not be at 100% with a lot of players looking ahead to vacation. The Aces seem to be getting back to their usual selves offensively in recent games, especially at home, so look for plenty of scoring as these teams head into the break.
Degenerates
NBA Summer League Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2
The secret to summer league betting is understanding that the sportsbooks don’t know anything, they’re just making up numbers for these first few games and learning as they go. That’s why you see so many spreads in the same range, often hovering around the key NBA number of 5 points. Well I’m convinced that the Wolves are definitely 5 points better than the Sixers in this format since there’s no Joel Embiid to stuff KAT in a locker and take his lunch money.
Minnesota flashed the defense in their first game, then the offense in their second game, with Terrence Shannon and Rob Dillingham finding their groove. It’s important to remember that those two have dominated this level of competition plenty of times before, and a Philly squad without any truly elite talent should come up short against them here.
Tiny Nick is 2378-2193 ATS (+87.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.