Locks
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever/Minnesota Lynx Under 164.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
Keep an eye on Napheesa Collier’s status for this game, but based on the shortened point spread it appears she’ll be out again. As we’ve seen in recent games, her absence really hampers the Minnesota offense. But the defense can still lock down at an elite level without her, and should be looking to bounce back after getting torched in Seattle.
Even in spite of that result, Lynx games lately have come nowhere near this total, with 6 straight going under with an average of 145.0 points. Bad defense from the Fever is why this number is so high, but I expect the Lynx to flex their defense on national TV and keep this lower-scoring.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 39 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Washington has a tendency to be absolutely wet from long range early in games, especially at home. That’s been the case in their past 5 home games, where they’ve averaged 49.2 first half points on the way to going 5-0 over this total. That includes their most recent home game, which came against the Aces and they dropped 52 before halftime. Las Vegas is a poor three-point defense, and the Mystics love to fire away from deep, so add in the up-tempo style of both teams and I think Washington clears this total once again.
MLB (1 Unit) Minnesota Twins/SF Giants Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Twins finally got some runs on the board yesterday, hopefully pulling themselves out of this mini-slump from the past few games. That had better continue today against Blake Snell, who had a good start last time out, but as a lefty still puts the Twins into their best hitting split with Minnesota leading the league in average against lefties.
And the Twins will need to get all the run support they can to Chris Paddack, who has a 7.25 ERA on the road this season. He’s also allowed a cumulative .342 average and 1.096 OPS against Giants bats in his career. So in an afternoon game with warmer weather, plus the wind blowing out at Oracle Park, there should be plenty of runs to clear this low total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Oakland A’s/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
This is a justifiably high total considering the pitchers, offenses, and hitting conditions today. Any time you get Joey Estes pitching on the road it should be a recipe for runs, as the Oakland righty has a 9.10 ERA and .314 opponent on-base average in away games. Putting him up against a Phillies offense that’s top-5 in average, wOBA, and OPS against righties might get unfair.
But the A’s have been scoring well lately, considering the fact that it’s the A’s, putting up 5 or more runs in 8 of their past 11 games. Production like that, which could easily come against a Phillies bullpen game, should easily get this game to the high total. Both teams love putting the ball in the air too, and a very hot day with winds blowing out to center will help those carry, so look for this game to get pretty high-scoring.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2375-2192 ATS (+87.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.