Thursday, September 19, 2024

Would Britain win the Falklands War now?

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But of course, wars today, while recognisable to soldiers of yesteryear, differ in many ways – especially when it comes to military technology. The ships, tanks and planes of today are the same as their 1982 counterparts in terms of their purpose, but are light years ahead in technical capabilities.

And while military chiefs may have shrunk the army, they would likely counter that using developments in other areas, such as offensive cyber capabilities, drones and space-based systems, which have more than made up for the cuts. 

Prior to his time as head of the army, Sir Patrick was in charge of Strategic Command. This military organisation runs many of the specialist and niche capabilities that don’t look like a tank, plane or ship. Think: satellites, special forces and military cyber hackers. 

Consequently, having seen both sides, Sir Patrick has always steered a middle way in the “cyber or bayonet” debate. 

He has championed cyber capabilities while also cautioning, “you can’t cyber your way across a river”, and even more directly: “Don’t get caught out bringing a computer to a knife fight”.

Even so, Britain’s cyber capabilities today are formidable and shouldn’t be underestimated in any future war. 

Well in advance of any future invasion of the Falkland Islands GCHQ and military colleagues would be active in the cyber domain: looking for indicators and warnings of potential hostile action; denying enemy capability; and good old-fashioned spying. 

If enemy troops were landed on the Falkland Islands, and well ahead of any task force arriving, a GCHQ cyber strike would likely turn off all the power in the aggressor state’s capital. After two days of total chaos, London would likely send the message, “Have you had enough?”

Adding to the complications for any would-be hostile power is the fact that after the 1982 war the MoD developed bases on the islands. 

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