Vladimir Putin would likely exploit any ceasefire to simply “reconstitute” his forces before launching a new attack on Ukraine, a new report has assessed.
Putin said in June he would be ready to accept a ceasefire on current frontlines, noting he would be willing to stand down his troops if Kyiv were to agree to give up any claims on occupied territories.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dismissed claims from US government officials claiming Ukraine could still secure a victory over Russia without having to liberate its land.
They argued the suggestion is based on the assumption that Moscow would put an end to its military operations if all its terms were to be agreed to.
Instead, they warned a truce would only hand Putin the chance to rebuild his forces before pursuing new attacks from “fortified frontlines.”
In their latest assessment of the state of war, the ISW said: “ISW has assessed that a negotiated ceasefire on Russian terms will afford the Russian military time to rest and reconstitute, likely before conducting a future attack on Ukraine from a much more advanced and fortified frontline.
“Putin has been firm and consistent in his ultimate goal of destroying the Ukrainian state and will not give up that goal until he feels that he has achieved it.”
Experts noted suggestions Ukraine could win without the need to reclaim its whole territory are based on “faulty assumptions” and fail to consider Putin’s commitment to securing control over Ukraine.
They added: “The lands Russia currently occupies are both economically and strategically necessary for Ukraine, and their continued occupation will deprive Ukraine of economic resources and strategically critical land.
“Putin himself has stated that Russia will not be content with ending the war on the lines it currently holds and has explicitly called for the Ukrainian withdrawal from the non-occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts as a prerequisite for any sort of ‘peace’ negotiations with Ukraine.
“Putin has, furthermore, continually framed the war as a struggle against NATO and repeated his insistence that Ukraine change its constitution to formally abandon any aspirations of joining the alliance.
“There is no basis for assessing that Putin would agree to a ceasefire that leaves Ukraine closer to NATO.”
Russia justified its invasion citing concerns about NATO’s expansionistic goals. However, Putin’s attack on Ukraine heavily backfired on Russia.
The Atlantic Alliance confirmed in September 2023 members agreed Ukraine would become a member.
Sweden and Finland both applied for membership within months of Moscow launching the invasion, and the two northern European nations joined the following year.