MANILA – Following last month’s near-fatal showdown over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippines and China have resumed diplomatic contacts in a bid to defuse dangerously rising tensions in the South China Sea.
On July 2, at the latest round of the so-called Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM), Philippine Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Ma Theresa Lazaro and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong had “frank and constructive” discussions, according to a statement issued after the meeting by the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs.
During their first BCM in six months, a perilous period that has seen multiple near-collisions in the disputed waters and ramped up bellicose rhetoric, both sides “affirmed their commitment to deescalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions” and “recognized that there is a need to restore trust.” Nevertheless, the statement said, “[despite] substantial progress on developing measures to manage the situation at sea…significant differences remain.”
Amid the deadlock and escalation, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr faces growing pressure on multiple fronts in response to his hard pivot back to the United States and other traditional allies in response to China’s rising maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea. Manila is increasingly seen as joining America’s bloc of like-minded democracies against a rival bloc led by China and Russia.
During his most recent televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned smaller states against turning into America’s “satellite states” or face the risk of countermeasures by Moscow.
“Today, it is known that the United States not only produces these missile systems but has already brought them to Europe for exercises, to Denmark. Quite recently, it was announced that they are [also] in the Philippines,” Putin said, referring to the Pentagon’s unprecedented deployment of the US Typhon Weapon System in the Philippines ahead of their joint Balikatan wargames earlier this year.
The state-of-the-art weapons system, capable of firing Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles and SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles, boasts an operational range of up to 2,500 kilometers. Philippine authorities have remained mum on the status and current location of the potent missile system.
Some suspect it may be permanently positioned in the country under the two sides recently expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which gives the US rotational access to a growing number of Philippine military bases and facilities.
In response, a rising chorus of Filipino voices has stepped up criticism of the US Pentagon’s expanding military footprint in the country. Certain progressive forces have accused the Marcos Jr administration of undermining the country’s sovereignty by overtly siding with the West and Japan against China.
Former legislator Carlos Isagani Zarate, who hails from the left-leaning party-list Bayan Muna, recently lambasted the government for its “US satellite-like foreign policy [which] has contributed to bringing the world to the brink of a renewed nuclear arms race.”
“We demand that the Marcos … administration abide by the constitutional edicts of pursuing an independent foreign policy and making the Philippines free of nuclear arms and foreign troops,” Zarate said in a statement. Pro-Beijing elements have also stepped up their critique of the current administration’s foreign policy.
Main among them is former president Rodrigo Duterte, who has gone so far as to accuse his successor of allowing the Philippines to be “used” by Washington in a supposed “proxy war” against China. With his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, recently resigning from Marcos Jr’s cabinet, the former president has effectively positioned himself as the leader of the opposition.
In a nationwide National Day of Protest Rally, which was held in Tacloban City in the central islands of Visayas, Duterte hailed Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping as a “very close friend” and effectively pushed the blame for recent escalating sea tensions to his compatriots in the government rather than China.
“We were not fighting with China before. We were free to fish in and out of the area, nobody was bugging us and there was no issue of territory. We were not molested, we were there to fish, to make a living. It only happens when a leader changes his strategy,” Duterte claimed, referring to his comparatively Beijing-friendly diplomacy (though the two sides had their own share of tensions in the South China Sea during his six-year tenure.)
In 2019, while Duterte was in power, a suspected Chinese militia vessel rammed and sunk a Filipino fishing vessel off the hotly disputed Reed Bank, triggering a nationwide anti-Beijing backlash in the Philippines. Two years later, Duterte himself publicly criticized China for its swarming of the Philippine-claimed Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea.
“I don’t know if I would tell the story behind it but I’m sure you know it well. The Philippines was used by the US and the Philippines allowed itself to be used. But it is what it is, every leader has a different strategy,” Duterte added in his recent speech, underscoring the risk of overreliance on America as a counter to China’s expanding footprint in the South China Sea.
Interestingly, even Marcos Jr’s own sister, Imee, who heads the foreign affairs committee at the Philippine Senate, has joined the critical chorus. In a recent interview, the presidential sister, who is known for her longtime proximity to both the Dutertes and China, warned of dangerous military escalation if the Philippines continues on its current policy path.
“Let’s admit that the problem is that China thinks we have already sided with their enemy [America]. We gave 17 [Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement] sites, which China thinks are [America] military bases. So they were incensed [by our decisions],” Imee Marcos said, referring to a series of Philippine military facilities that were opened to the Pentagon under EDCA.
Similar to Duterte, Imee Marcos’ statement didn’t reflect reality since the Philippines has only opened up nine EDCA sites to the Pentagon. Under the Philippine constitution, foreign powers are barred from setting up permanent bases in the country, in response to the US use of the country during the previous Cold War era.
“Based on what we read, there are [American] missiles in Batanes and in Subic so those two would be the first targets together with Ilocos because of Balikatan live-fire drills. It’s scary, what is that, we are talking of 25 here, that is not a joke,” Imee Marcos added, warning of China’s possible military strike plans against American assets on Philippine soil in any armed conflict scenario.
“I’m really scared because while tensions are brewing in the [South China Sea], I saw [reports] about China’s plans to use hypersonic missiles… The US said they could not thwart hypersonic missiles. I became more nervous because I thought that when it comes to missiles, other countries have this thing called the Iron Dome, which prevents missiles from entering. But when it comes to hypersonic missiles, it could enter easily. Everything [in the Philippines] will be crushed,” she added.
In response, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) simply asked the senator to share any helpful information she may have in order for the government to “take appropriate actions to ensure our nation’s security.” Top defense experts and officials have broadly dismissed Imee Marcos’ statement as hyperbolic, if not misleading.
With a strong majority of Filipinos broadly backing Marcos Jr’s foreign policy, including his alignment with the US, there is little sign of a major policy shift on the horizon. If anything, the Philippine military has signaled that it will stand its ground should China continue to employ aggressive tactics, including a potential plan to forcibly overtake the Second Thomas Shoal.
“What we’ll do is we will apply the same level of force that would allow us to defend ourselves,” declared AFP Chief of Staff General Brawner, referring to the prospect of more collisions with Chinese vessels in the disputed waters.
“If a knife is used, for example, our personnel will also use a knife, nothing more, under the concept of proportionality,” he added, clarifying the rules of engagement for Philippine servicemen resupplying and sustaining the country’s de facto military base on the contested shoal.
“When I said that we’ll fight back, I meant we won’t allow ourselves to be bullied just like that, just like what happened the last time because, of course, our adversaries had weapons,” Brawner added, underscoring the military’s commitment to stay its current course despite growing risks of armed confrontation as well as criticism from high-profile politicians at home.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian